Independent Scientists Review NPCC’s Basin Fish/Wildlife Program, Recommend More Comprehensive Climate Change Strategy

In a recent review, a panel of scientists said the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program for the Columbia River basin is still changing and progressing after 40 years of implementation, but will need further updates and improvements, including a better strategy for incorporating climate change into the Program and a more comprehensive analysis of the outcome of removing the four lower Snake River dams.

The Independent Scientific Advisory Committee in its review said that after 40 years of implementation, “the Program has guided significant improvements to fish passage, habitat protection and restoration, hatchery operations, and supporting research, monitoring, and evaluation.”

However, “At the same time, the Basin is challenged by declining native fish populations, threats to biodiversity, and ongoing ecosystem degradation.”

The ISAB submitted its review of the 2014 Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program and 2020 Program Addendum to the Council Sept. 16.

Among other recommendations it called on the Council to consider indigenous cultural perspectives, recognize that the historical abundance of salmon and steelhead could be lower than the Program’s range of up to 16 million returning adult fish, developing more context for its abundance goal of 5 million adults and developing Strategy Performance Indicators to be tracked for each stock and subbasin.

The scientists also pointed out that the “lack of specific direction, actions, and Strategy Performance Indicators for climate change is one of the most critical gaps in the Fish and Wildlife Program that will influence its future success.”

The last time the ISAB had reviewed the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program was in 2018, prior to the Council’s own review that resulted in the 2020 Addendum to the Program. The ISAB said in the latest review that it is their responsibility to evaluate the Program on its scientific merits in time to inform amendments that the Council makes to the Program every five years.

The Council’s Fish and Wildlife Division and the Fish and Wildlife Committee are in the early stages of a process that could again result next year in either a new Program to replace the 2014 Program, or it could result in another addendum or amendment to the Program. The Council’s Power Committee is on a similar schedule to complete a new Northwest Power Plan.

The ISAB is a panel of scientists that review fish and wildlife projects and regional research issues for the Council, NOAA Fisheries and tribes.

In the 2020 Addendum, the Council amended the 2014 Program to 1) further define Program goals and objectives, 2) develop indicators to measure Program performance, and 3) establish implementation priorities, the ISAB said.

The 2024 ISAB review calls for more support for reintroductions of salmon and steelhead in blocked areas, new methods for climate assessment and monitoring non-native species, improvements in strategies for RM&E, and other actions to strengthen the Program.

The ISAB in its review commended the Council for several improvements that strengthen the scientific basis of the Program. Those improvements include:

• Development of more quantitative Program Objectives;
• Strategy Performance Indicators that will track progress continuously for selected key metrics on the Council’s online Program Tracker (see https://www.nwcouncil.org/fish-and-wildlife/program-tracker/) designed to provide public access and transparency;
• Progress of the Upper Columbia United Tribes and support by the Council and BPA to develop plans to reintroduce anadromous fish above Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams.

However, the ISAB also said there is room for improvement and is suggesting further actions. One is developing a more comprehensive climate change strategy. The scientists said that the Program’s climate change strategy has no specific indicators.

“Program planning, strategy, and actions can benefit from robust forecasting of climate, ocean, and in-river conditions and from selecting mitigation alternatives that contribute to habitat and population resilience under those forecasted conditions,” the scientists said. “Many projects in the Program recognize that climate change could affect the project outcomes but have not assessed risks or adjusted restoration efforts to adapt to climate change. Anticipatory approaches to evaluate options for adaptation are essential in scientifically sound restoration and hydro system management.”

The scientists went on to list these recommendations:

• The Program should consider how climate change might affect future water release and withdrawal strategies for the hydro system and influence salmon and steelhead survival throughout their life-cycles.
• The Program should assess how changes in temperature and flow variability could affect natural production, habitat conditions, and likely ranges of species. The frequency of warm years and the corresponding environmental conditions are expected to increase in the future. The survival of salmon may thus decrease more than recent averages illustrate.
• The collective ongoing poor survival of Columbia River salmon and steelhead warrants a comprehensive assessment of the long-term consequences of these trends and consideration of likely scenarios of climate change.

The review also recognized that one of the “major issues explored in the Columbia River in recent years has been the potential breaching of the four lower Snake River dams to increase survival of juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead from the Snake River basin. The ISAB recommends the Program develop a more comprehensive and representative analysis of the outcomes of removing these dams,” the review said.

Among the other ISAB Recommendations are:

• Assess the rationale for northern pikeminnow removals in mainstem Columbia River. Control measures might be warranted at locations where the hydro system creates artificial conditions that allow predators to have greater impacts on migrating juveniles, but control of native fish throughout the entire mainstem may not be supported by a more comprehensive analysis.
• The ISAB recommends the Program explore approaches to incorporate the influence of climate-related and density-dependent factors on the total life-cycle survival of Columbia River salmon across a broader range of possible hydrological and climate conditions.
• Synthesis reports for long-term projects and programs. “Rigorous adaptive management of projects that span 20 years or more requires integration and cumulative evaluation as a cost-effective means to evaluate progress toward Program goals,” the review says.
• Recognize and use different cultural perspectives and processes to inform and conduct science-based restoration and adaptive management. This is a matter of both scientific rigor and social justice, the review said. Include Indigenous cultural perspectives, adaptive management processes, and ecological knowledge alongside current scientific approaches that benefit fish and wildlife and meet the Program’s mitigation goals.
• It may be time the Program should report the major changes in estimates of historical abundances of salmon and steelhead from the estimated range of 10 to 16 million returning adult fish that’s been a part of the Council’s Program since 1987 to about 9 million returning adults.  The ISAB said that four major assessments since the start of the Program had estimated maximum abundances at about 9 million returning fish.
• The ISAB also noted additions that would strengthen the scientific basis of the Program, such as more quantitative program objectives and new strategy performance indicators to track progress of key metrics. For example, some of the Program’s objectives contribute to achieving abundance and distribution targets, but tracking these targets is “hampered by data availability and funding for monitoring, thus new cost-effective methods, such as eDNA, and collaborations with other sources of data and information will be important additions to the Program.”
• One of the major concerns the ISAB expressed in the 2018 Review was the Program goal of “increasing total adult salmon and steelhead runs to an average of 5 million annually by 2025 in a manner that emphasizes the populations that originate above Bonneville Dam and supports tribal and non-tribal harvest.” The Program should develop a context for the abundance goal representing potential trajectories that are a) based on recent data and life-cycle models, and b) bounded by plausible scenarios with explicit assumptions of major limiting factors, the review said. These trajectories would identify possible near-term and long-term performance metrics to provide a context for short-term trends in Program performance and potential management responses.
• The 2020 Addendum developed a Biological Objective to contribute to the Columbia Basin Partnership’s targets for abundance of natural-origin salmon and steelhead stocks for major subbasins. The ISAB recommends the Council develop an explicit strategy that emphasizes protection of natural-origin fish while also meeting overall abundance goals to mitigate losses related to the hydro system.
• The 2018 ISAB Review noted that key Program strategies and measures lack monitoring and evaluation plans and adequate funding. The Program still lacks an approach or process for expanding results from specific areas to the full Columbia River Basin.
• The Columbia River Basin Tributary Habitat Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation Strategy describes the major components of RM&E, but it does not create a comprehensive approach for monitoring and evaluation at the Basin scale as identified in the 2018 ISAB Review.
• The Ecosystem Function strategy should focus on the entire Columbia River ecosystem, rather than focusing only on habitat in the tributaries.
• The Council should develop strategic approaches for prioritizing protection of high-quality habitats as well as restoration of degraded habitats.
• Ongoing sentinel monitoring is critical to quickly detect non-native species, document their spread, and identify risks to critical populations. New eDNA methods provide a more cost-effective approach for monitoring non-native organisms at the basin scale than previous survey methods did.
• Increased restoration of the connectivity between the mainstem and its floodplain and consideration of species other than salmon and steelhead in the mainstem Columbia River would strengthen the Program.

The 1980 Northwest Power Act directs the Council to, at least every five years, prepare, adopt, and periodically review a Columbia River Basin fish and wildlife program to mitigate the impacts of hydropower dams on fish, wildlife, and related spawning grounds and habitat. The Power Act also directs the Bonneville Power Administration to pay for projects that implement the Council’s program. The 2022 cost to the region was about $249 million.

The ISAB review of the Council’s 2014 Program and 2020 Addendum is here: https://www.nwcouncil.org/media/filer_public/72/94/72945626-6976-4159-93e6-99a699e1edab/ISAB_2024-2_FWP_Review16Sept2024.pdf

The 2014 Council Fish and Wildlife Program and 2020 Addendum are here: https://www.nwcouncil.org/fish-and-wildlife/

For background, see:

— CBB, September 19, 2019, COUNCIL REDUCES SCIENCE REVIEW PANEL’S (ISAB) BUDGET, SAYS NO IMPACT TO WORK: COST SAVINGS MIGHT GO TO PIKE SUPPRESSION, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/COUNCIL-REDUCES-SCIENCE-REVIEW-PANELS-ISAB-BUDGET-SAYS-NO-IMPACT-TO-WORK-COST-SAVINGS-MIGHT-GO-TO-PIKE-SUPPRESSION/

— CBB, December 12, 2019, “Council Discusses Remaining Key Issues In Basin Fish/Wildlife Program, Extends Deadline For Goals, Objectives,” https://www.www.www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/council-discusses-remaining-key-issues-in-basin-fish-wildlife-program-extends-deadline-for-goals-objectives/

— CBB, November 14, 2019, “As NW Power/Conservation Council Prepares 2020 Basin FW Program, Agencies/Tribes Want More Discussion on Goals, Objective,”

https://www.www.www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/as-nw-power-conservation-council-prepares-2020-basin-fw-program-agencies-tribes-want-more-discussion-on-goals-objectives/

— CBB, July 22, 2019, “Council Seeks Comments On Proposed Additions To Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program,” https://www.www.www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/council-seeks-comments-on-proposed-additions-to-columbia-river-basin-fish-and-wildlife-program/

— CBB, July 18, 2019, “Council Requests Independent Science Panel Review Upper Columbia Tribes’ Report On Re-Introducing Salmon/Steelhead Above Grand Coulee Dam,” https://www.www.www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/council-requests-independent-science-panel-review-upper-columbia-tribes-report-on-re-introducing-salmon-steelhead-above-grand-coulee-dam/

— CBB, July 17, 2019, “New Columbia Basin Partnership Report Offers Regional Goals For Salmon/Steelhead Recovery,” https://www.www.www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/new-columbia-basin-partnership-report-offers-regional-goals-for-salmon-steelhead-recovery/

— CBB, March 15, 2019, “Proposed Amendments To Basin Fish/Wildlife Program Stress Reintroducing Salmon Above Blocked Areas,” https://www.www.www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/proposed-amendments-to-basin-fish-wildlife-program-stress-reintroducing-salmon-above-blocked-areas/

— CBB, February 22, 2019, “Council Staff Organizing, Summarizing Recommendations For Amending Basin Fish And Wildlife Program,” https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/council-staff-organizing-summarizing-recommendations-for-amending-basin-fish-and-wildlife-program/

— CBB, January 18, 2019, “Not Clear What Government Shutdown Might Mean For Council’s F&W Program Amendment Process Schedule.” https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/not-clear-what-government-shutdown-might-mean-for-councils-fw-program-amendment-process-schedule/

— CBB, December 21, 2018, “Council Receives Proposed Amendments To Basin Fish And Wildlife Program, Comments Due Feb. 4,” https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/council-receives-proposed-amendments-to-basin-fish-and-wildlife-program-comments-due-feb-4/

–CBB, August 24, 2018, “Columbia Basin Partnership Develops Preliminary Abundance Goals For Salmon, Steelhead,” https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-basin-partnership-develops-preliminary-abundance-goals-for-salmon-steelhead/

— CBB, August 17, 2018, “Deadline Extended For Amendments To Columbia River Basin Fish And Wildlife Program.” https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/deadline-extended-for-amendments-to-columbia-river-basin-fish-and-wildlife-program/