A regional panel of scientists’ recent review of the Upper Snake River Tribes Foundation’s assessment of spring/summer Chinook losses resulting from the construction of upper Snake River dams said the Tribes’ analysis could be improved and gives pointers to help with a second round of work.
The Tribes had asked the Independent Scientific Advisory Board in March to review the scientific elements of their study that estimated 1.4 million spring/summer Chinook salmon were lost after multiple dams were constructed on the upper Snake River.
The ISAB completed its review of the Tribes’ assessment August 1, saying that it “agrees that USRT’s use of an intrinsic potential model to assess loss of spring/summer Chinook salmon in the upper Snake River was a good first step that yielded valuable information under a constrained budget.”
However, the ISAB said it “has concerns about the accuracy and uncertainty of the results, and concerns about how the model was used in the large leap from assessing habitat suitability and availability to quantifying and distributing the historical numbers of spring/summer Chinook salmon in stream reaches above the Hells Canyon Complex.”
The Foundation, Dermitt Paiute and Shoshone Tribes, Shoshone-Bannock Tribes of Fort Hall, Shoshone-Paiute Tribes of Duck Valley, and Parametrix collaborated on the loss assessment for spring/summer Chinook.
The ISAB suggested these next steps for what it said would “produce a more complete analysis with increased certainty.”
- Explore more fully the current intrinsic potential model used in Parametrix (2023) to better understand the effect of assumptions made and scalars used.
- Experiment with alternative intrinsic potential models that consider other biologically relevant covariates, e.g., temperature, precipitation, and discharge.
- Explore the effects of landscape alterations from human disturbances and the expected effect of climate change.
- Explore other modeling methods for cross-model comparisons, to increase accuracy and to reduce uncertainty.
- Incorporate Indigenous knowledge to inform the analysis. In the “Analysis” section, the ISAB elaborated, saying “The ISAB recognizes the important historical ecological and cultural links between people and salmon in the Upper Snake River Basin. To the extent that USRT would like to do so in next steps, we support the inclusion of Indigenous knowledge and Tribal preferences for harvesting locations and other culturally important geographies to help guide reintroduction plans and protocols. Indigenous knowledge would likely be of great utility to help guide restoration efforts and decisions (see Lander and Mallory 2021; Mehltretter et al. 2024), and we encourage inclusion of Indigenous knowledge in future development of this plan.”
“The ISAB concluded by saying it “hopes that this review will help USRT with plans for assessments of loss and current habitat capacity for spring/summer Chinook salmon and other fish stocks and species. Although the suggested next steps will require additional effort, they will be critical for informing future actions to reintroduce anadromous fish above the Hells Canyon Complex.”
Historically, some 10-16 million anadromous fish returned to the Columbia River Basin, with an estimated 1.7 million of those headed upriver of Hells Canyon Dam on the Snake River. Due to dam construction, habitat destruction, overfishing, and other impacts the current 10-year average of Chinook passing Bonneville Dam has dropped to 729,485 adults, with none heading upriver of the dams, according to a presentation by Dennis Daw, USRT Foundation Fish and Wildlife Program Director. Daw presented the Tribes’ findings at the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s March 12 Fish and Wildlife Committee meeting.
Although previous loss assessments of salmon and steelhead have been completed, including one by the Council in 1987, the assessment by the USRT Foundation is a refinement of previous studies, focusing on distribution of the fish upstream of the Hells Canyon Dam, the lowest and one of the last dams built upstream of Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River. One difference from previous assessments is that it calculates losses by “dam-shed,” or the watershed upstream of each of the more than a dozen dams constructed in the upper Snake River basin. The assessment provides the region with an understanding of where the fish were distributed prior to dam construction.
A partial list of those dams include Hells Canyon, Brownlee, CJ Strike and Swan Falls dams, all owned by Idaho Power Company. Tributary dams are more numerous, including Thief Valley, Unity, Agency, Warm Springs, Black Canyon Diversion, Owyhee, Boise Diversion and Bruneau dams, all owned by the Bureau of Reclamation, except for Bruneau Dam. Bruneau Dam is one of the earliest dams. It is owned by an irrigation company. None of the dams have fish ladders, Daw said. The last dam – Hells Canyon Dam – was built in the mid-1960s.
“Most of the drainages had some problems, but dams were the end for salmon,” Daw said. Other issues were “serious overfishing in the lower Columbia River before the dam building era, as well as logging and mining.”
The ISRB report is here: https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/isab2024-1/
For background, see:
— CBB, March 22, 2024, Dam-Sheds: Tribes Report Calculates Loss Of Spring/Summer Chinook On Upper Snake River Due To Dams At 1.4 Million Fish, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/dam-sheds-tribes-report-calculates-loss-of-spring-summer-chinook-on-upper-snake-river-due-to-dams-at-1-4-million-fish/
— CBB, December 13, 2023, Burns Paiute Tribe Calls On FERC, Biden Administration To Identify Measures To Return Salmon To Malheur River Basin Upstream Of Hells Canyon Dams, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/burns-paiute-tribe-calls-on-ferc-biden-administration-to-identify-measures-to-return-salmon-to-malheur-river-basin-upstream-of-hells-canyon-dams/
— CBB, Oct. 20, 2022, OREGON, BURNS PAIUTE TRIBE SIGN AGREEMENT TO COLLABORATE ON REINTRODUCING SALMON, STEELHEAD TO MALHEUR RIVER https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/oregon-burns-paiute-tribe-sign-agreement-to-collaborate-on-reintroducing-salmon-steelhead-to-malheur-river/
–CBB, Sept. 3, 2021, LITIGATION OVER HELLS CANYON WATER QUALITY SETTLED; OREGON TO DEVELOP PLAN TO CONTROL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ON SALMON, STEELHEAD https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/litigation-over-hells-canyon-water-quality-settled-oregon-to-develop-plan-to-control-temperature-impacts-on-salmon-steelhead/


