Corps Preparing For Fall/Winter Reservoir Drawdowns In Willamette River Basin To Aid ESA-Listed Salmon, Steelhead, Required By BiOp

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is alerting Willamette Valley residents that it will begin drawing down reservoirs backed up behind some of its 13 dams in the river system, an action designed to aid the downstream migration of salmon and steelhead through the dams, but also one that has increased downstream turbidity that impacts city drinking water.

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Two Decades Of Partnerships (Non-Profits, Utilities, Agencies)  Help Restore Oregon’s McKenzie River With Connected Flood Plains, Natural Flows

Projects in Oregon’s McKenzie River, a tributary of the Willamette River, are restoring the river from its recent channelized state to a healthy river with connected flood plains and natural flows, a river that is much more conducive to salmon and steelhead rearing, according to a recent presentation at a Northwest Power and Conservation Council meeting.

The Finn Rock and Quartz Creek restoration projects in the mid-McKenzie River have been made possible by a partnership of non-profits, utilities and local, state, and federal agencies, according to a Sept. 3 Council Memorandum (2025_09_2.pdf). The partners had “aligned behind shared goals for restoring river complexity for the mix of habitat, flood retention, drinking water protection and other public values that connected floodplains and natural flows can provide.”

Similar to other watersheds in the Pacific Northwest, regional development had simplified or channelized the McKenzie River, reducing its habitat diversity and diminishing its ecosystem processes, according to a Sept. 19 Council blog.
Efforts to restore the river began in 2001 when the Willamette River Basin Planning Atlas was published by Stan Gregory, currently a Professor Emeritus of Fisheries at Oregon State University and former chair of both the Independent Science Advisory Board and Independent Scientific Review Panel, and others.

“And this became a road map for us,” Joe Moll, Executive Director of the McKenzie River Trust, said at the Sept. 9 Council meeting in Eugene. “It said, look, we have some choices in the Willamette Basin. We can keep going as we are, and we will continue to lose access to clean water, fish and wildlife habitat, all of the other benefits. Or we can do some really strategic conservation, give the river back its floodplain in some really strategic areas, and it’s not going to have to be a really big sacrifice to have some really strong gains.”

That was the beginning of the over two decade history of McKenzie River restoration.

In 2001, the Eugene Water and Electric Board created its own drinking water protection plan. The McKenzie River is the sole source of drinking water for the city of Eugene and much of neighboring Springfield. This led to an interest by EWEB in natural solutions, such as river restoration, to maintain clean drinking water, according to Susan Fricke, Water Resources Supervisor at EWEB.

In 2010, the Willamette Wildlife Mitigation Program was established through a memorandum of understanding between the State of Oregon and Bonneville Power Administration. The Program was managed by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife and guided by the Council’s 2009 Fish and Wildlife Program, the Council blog says. A variety of habitat restoration projects have been implemented both before and under the MOU.

Also about ten years ago the US Forest Service began looking at large scale intervention in the river that the Service called “stage zero.” That’s where a heavily channelized river is returned to a more natural depositional valley model, according to the blog.

“This approach adds value in terms of fish and wildlife habitat, clean water, water retention, and reducing flood impacts used for the Finn Rock and Quartz Creek projects, with the collaboration of multiple agencies, partners and funders, including the Council,” the blog says.

One of those funders is NOAA Fisheries, which in 2022 provided the McKenzie River Trust with $1.7 million for the project from congressionally-directed community project funds to restore 150 acres of floodplain habitat at Finn Rock Reach. According to NOAA, adult Chinook spawned in the restored habitat in 2023, laying eggs in 65 “redds”—gravel nests they scour out of the river bottom.

And, last year NOAA’s Office of Habitat Conservation awarded the McKenzie Watershed Alliance $7.6 million through the Infrastructure Law to help restore lower Quartz Creek. Historical accounts document the presence of Chinook salmon and bull trout in Quartz Creek, but neither species has been seen there for decades.

EWEB added $1 million for project funding and grants added $17 million more.

The McKenzie River is a primary tributary of the Willamette River, flowing west about 90 miles from the crest of the Cascade Mountains to where it joins the Willamette near Eugene, OR.

At the Council meeting, Moll noted the significance of a member of a land trust co-presenting with a utility, attributing it in part to the Council’s “vision for what it means to have collaborative power production, power use, and fish and wildlife conservation.”

The projects came together with the McKenzie River Trust acquiring 278 acres of bottom land in lower Quartz Creek in 2014 and 2015, the blog says. On Upper Quartz Creek, EWEB worked with Campbell Global, land manager for the landowner Franklin-Clarkson Timber Co. LLC, to do conservation through a 50-year stewardship easement on 82 acres. The project also incorporates some Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management property.

“Limited human infrastructure in the area meant that large-scale restoration efforts could take place with minimal disruption to surrounding communities,” the blog says.

Margi Hoffmann, Oregon Council member, said that these projects had the “rare ability to work at scale,” asking if other opportunities for similar, large-scale projects existed.

These projects began on federal land and there are examples happening now on federal, private, and state lands, both in Oregon and across the West, Moll said. He also said there are risks with these types of projects, such as impacts to recreation and the possibility of flooding, but he concluded that the benefits are worth it.

Fricke said that finding locations for this kind of restoration work is strategic, and wouldn’t be undertaken in heavily urbanized areas where there might be negative impacts to infrastructure or transit. It can also be expensive.
Fricke also said it is challenging to work with a “patchwork” of landowners to create large-scale projects, but she also appreciates the willingness of many landowners to contribute to river restoration.

Large river restoration projects can help promote wildfire resiliency, the blog said. During the Holiday Farm Fire that burned over 170,000 acres in 2020, restoration partners discovered that restored areas, which were wider, wetter and more humid, acted as natural fire breaks as well as providing a base for firefighting operations and refugia for fish and wildlife.

After the Holiday Farm Fire, EWEB found that in addition to working directly with landowners on restoration projects to improve erosion control and protect drinking water, the public company’s electric ratepayers were willing to pay a surcharge to acquire, restore and protect land along the river, Fricke said. This raised $11.5M over 5 years, which EWEB was able to leverage into an additional $17M in grants.

“One of the things that is really beautiful about Oregon is it doesn’t matter where you are in this state, everybody cares about the outdoors,” said Fricke.

Additional benefits of these projects include moderating water temperatures, providing habitat for fish and wildlife, protecting drinking water by removing sediment and filtering toxins, and reducing flooding. Long-term monitoring and evaluation will be needed to more fully understand the impacts of these projects over time, the blog says.

The McKenzie River Trust is a nonprofit land trust formed in 1989 to protect critical habitats and scenic lands in the McKenzie River basin. Its service area today includes the watersheds of the Long Tom, Upper Willamette, Coast and Middle Forks of the Willamette River, the Umpqua, Siuslaw and coastal headlands rivers, streams and lakes from Reedsport to Lincoln City.

For background, see:
— CBB, June 21, 2024, Infrastructure Law Funding Restores Habitat On Section Of Oregon’s McKenzie River, Redds Showing Up, Infrastructure Law Funding Restores Habitat On Section Of Oregon’s McKenzie River, Redds Showing Up – Columbia Basin Bulletin
–CBB, Sept. 15, 2023, AS MEASURES IMPLEMENTED TO AID ESA SALMONIDS AT WILLAMETTE VALLEY DAMS, CORPS STUDYING WHETHER TO END HYDRO PRODUCTION https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/as-measures-implemented-to-aid-esa-salmonids-at-willamette-valley-dams-corps-studying-whether-to-end-hydro-production/

Dam Drawdowns For Fish: Willamette Valley Cities Declare Clean Water Emergency Over Coming Reservoir Drop

Anticipating extra turbidity and an interruption of the clean drinking water it withdraws from the North Santiam River, the City of Salem declared a state of emergency at its City Council meeting last week. The expected turbidity is due to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ deep drawdown next year of its reservoir backed up behind Detroit Dam to aid juvenile salmon and steelhead passage, particularly for salmon and steelhead listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act.

Both the upper Willamette spring Chinook and the upper Willamette winter steelhead are listed as threatened under the ESA.

The City, just one of several Willamette Valley cities facing a drinking water emergency due to reservoir drawdowns in the Valley, said the declaration would “ease the process of arranging services and gathering materials and equipment essential to improving the resiliency of the City’s water system.”

The deep drawdown of Detroit Reservoir is called for in NOAA Fisheries’ December 2024 biological opinion that governs operations of the Corps’ 13 dams in its Willamette Valley system. The BiOp directs the Corps to lower the elevation in Detroit Reservoir to 1,395 feet above sea level, a level not seen since the dam was first constructed over 70 years ago in 1953, the City said in a news release. That’s about 55 feet lower than its typical fall drawdown level. The lake is full at 1,565 feet above sea level.

For NOAA’s 2024 BiOp, see https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/endangered-species-act-section-7a2-biological-opinion-and-magnuson-stevens-0

The Corps was initially to have begun the Detroit drawdown this year, but recently put it off until next year while it studies the action. In a recent fact sheet, the Corps said it plans to finalize a long-term management strategy for Detroit Dam and reservoir by next year. “The strategy will include considerations for fish migration and the potential of hydropower generation at the dam,” the Corps said.

In April 2025, the Corps’ Portland District completed a six-year study on the operations and maintenance of its Willamette Valley dams and reservoirs and published an Environmental Impact Statement. The EIS helps the Corps understand how its operations effect the environment, people, and ecosystems—and examines “alternatives,” or different ways the Corps could adjust operations, the Corps said in June.

However, shortly before the EIS was finalized, two new federal requirements were introduced, prompting the need for a supplemental EIS. That SEIS will evaluate:

— Implementing a deeper fall drawdown at Detroit Reservoir: To support endangered fish, as required by the NOAA Fisheries. The drawdown is not expected to occur until fall 2026, and the Corps will evaluate its effects—such as potential impacts to water quality and local communities—in the SEIS.

— Studying a permanent end to hydropower production at Willamette Valley dams: As directed by Congress in the Water Resources Development Act of 2024. This step is necessary to complete federal consultations and environmental compliance under NEPA.

–See CBB, June 6, 2025, Corps Extends Public Comment Period On SEIS For Willamette River Basin Dams, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/corps-extends-public-comment-period-on-seis-for-willamette-river-basin-dams/

The City of Stayton has also taken action this year sending a letter in June to the Corps saying that the deep drawdown of Detroit Reservoir “is expected to cause prolonged and elevated turbidity in the North Santiam River—Stayton’s sole source of drinking water.”

Stayton said the expected level of turbidity from the drawdown – up to 2,700 Nephelometric Turbidity Units – would cause its slow sand water filters to stop functioning, adding that the filters work best when turbidity is lower than 10 NTUs.

“If the plant shuts down, residents could be left without clean water, or possibly any water at all, for weeks or even months,” Stayton said.

In addition, the cities of Sweet Home and Lebanon filed a $37 million lawsuit against the Corps last year over a similar drawdown of the Green Peter Reservoir in 2023, claiming that the project caused increased turbidity on the South Santiam River and damaged both cities’ water treatment systems.

That drawdown also killed thousands of kokanee salmon. The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife determined that the fish died from barotrauma, a condition caused by a rapid pressure reduction as fish pass from deep below the surface on one side of the dam to the other side near the surface level. Among divers, this decompression effect is known as “the bends.” Kokanee salmon, which are not endangered, are particularly sensitive to the pressure change.

The claim focuses on the Corps’ actions during a 2023 drawdown at the Green Peter Dam, which caused elevated turbidity levels in the South Santiam River, affecting the municipal water supplies of both Lebanon and Sweet Home, a City of Sweet Home press release says.

The increased sediment load severely impacted the water treatment systems of both cities, leading to heightened operational costs, equipment damage and the need for costly pretreatment system upgrades.

“The damages we’ve sustained are substantial and ongoing,” said City Manager Ron Whitlatch from Lebanon. “Together with Sweet Home, we are seeking accountability for the harm caused to our infrastructure and the significant costs we’ve incurred to ensure safe drinking water for our communities.”

In addition, both cities have also officially declared a State of Emergency in anticipation of potential impacts to water quality and both cities are working together to seek compensation for damages, which exceed $26 million in Lebanon and over $11 million in Sweet Home.

“These costs reflect the anticipated upgrades necessary of the water treatment facilities to handle current and future drawdowns, ensure long-term water safety, and address the strain the drawdowns have placed on the community’s resources,” the two cities said in a press release.

Salem says that the expected high levels of suspended sediment in the river during the drawdown will require the City to stop using river water at its water treatment plant for weeks. During that time, it will use other water sources, such as existing groundwater wells on Geren Island, the Aquifer Storage and Recovery system in South Salem and an emergency supply of drinking water through a connection with the City of Keizer. “However, these sources may not meet all of the expected water demand during the drawdown and recovery period in 2026 or the years following,” the City said.

Other projects include the construction of up to four additional groundwater wells on Geren Island and improving its filters at the water treatment plant, as well as adding a pump station to a second water connection with the City of Keizer, but these are not expected to be operational until 2027.

On the Corps’ side, it says that “while the deep drawdown of Detroit Lake has been postponed (from the fall of 2025 to the fall of 2026), the discussion surrounding its future implementation continue to raise concerns among local communities regarding water quality and supply. The USACE is committed to studying the impacts and engaging with affected residents as they develop their plans.

For background, see:
— CBB, June 6, 2025, Corps Extends Public Comment Period On SEIS For Willamette River Basin Dams, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/corps-extends-public-comment-period-on-seis-for-willamette-river-basin-dams/
— CBB, May 23, 2025, CORPS SEEKS PUBLIC COMMENTS ON SUPPLEMENTAL EIS FOR WILLAMETTE RIVER BASIN DAMS, WANTS VIEWS ON ENDING HYDROPOWER, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/CORPS-SEEKS-PUBLIC-COMMENTS-ON-SUPPLEMENTAL-EIS-FOR-WILLAMETTE-RIVER-BASIN-DAMS-WANTS-VIEWS-ON-ENDING-HYDROPOWER/
— CBB, April 21, 2025, Corps Final EIS For Willamette Valley’s 13 Dams Selects Alternative Best For ESA-Listed Fish, Next Comes Supplemental EIS, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/corps-final-eis-for-willamette-valleys-13-dams-selects-alternative-best-for-esa-listed-fish-next-comes-supplemental-eis/
— CBB, October 12, 2023, COURT ORDERED DRAWDOWN OF WILLAMETTE RESERVOIR TO AID ESA SALMON LEADS TO DEATH FOR THOUSANDS OF KOKANEE, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/COURT-ORDERED-DRAWDOWN-OF-WILLAMETTE-RESERVOIR-TO-AID-ESA-SALMON-LEADS-TO-DEATH-FOR-THOUSANDS-OF-KOKANEE/
–CBB, May 18, 2023, COURT ORDER HAS CORPS DRAWING DOWN TWO WILLAMETTE RESERVOIRS TO HISTORICALLY LOW LEVELS TO INCREASE JUVENILE SALMON PASSAGE, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/court-order-has-corps-drawing-down-two-willamette-reservoirs-to-historically-low-levels-to-increase-juvenile-salmon-passage/
— CBB, March 23, 2023, Comments On Corps’ Draft EIS for 13 Willamette Valley Dams Question Whether Plan Avoids Jeopardy For ESA-Listed Salmonids, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/comments-on-corps-draft-eis-for-13-willamette-valley-dams-question-whether-plan-avoids-jeopardy-for-esa-listed-salmonids/
— CBB, March 9, 2023, SCIENCE PANEL GIVES THUMBS-UP ON FISH RESPONSE MODELS CORPS USED TO DEVELOP DRAFT WILLAMETTE RIVER BASIN EIS, https://cbbulletin.com/science-panel-gives-thumbs-up-on-fish-response-models-corps-used-to-develop-draft-willamette-river-basin-eis/
— CBB, December 2, 2022, CORPS RELEASES DRAFT EIS FOR 13 WILLAMETTE BASIN DAMS INTENDED TO AID ESA-LISTED SALMON, STEELHEAD; DRAWDOWNS, STRUCTURAL CHANGES, LESS POWER, https://cbbulletin.com/corps-releases-draft-eis-for-13-willamette-basin-dams-intended-to-aid-esa-listed-salmon-steelhead-drawdowns-structural-changes-less-power/

The Problem Is Now: New WSU Research Shows Groundwater Declines In ‘Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System’

Above photo: A conservation district employee measures groundwater at a monitoring well in Lincoln County, as part of a training and monitoring session in 2021 led by the Department of Ecology. Sasha McLarty, an assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at WSU, has published new research on the region’s aquifer system based on data from such wells. (Photo by Sasha McClarty)

Groundwater is declining across Eastern Washington’s complex, interconnected aquifer system, as people draw on it for irrigation, drinking and other uses at a pace that threatens its sustainability, according to a new study by a Washington State University researcher.

In certain “hot spots” — such as the Odessa region and the Yakima Basin — the rates of decline are particularly significant, with groundwater levels dropping two to three feet a year or more.

The data is built upon a new metric of water vulnerability; rather than simply calculating how much groundwater there is, it measures how much is actually accessible with current wells.

“With these numbers we can say, ‘Hey, this is a problem now,’” said Sasha McLarty, an assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at WSU and the corresponding author of the new study. “It’s not a problem in the future, it’s a problem now.”

The research, published in the journal Groundwater for Sustainable Development, provides a detailed new picture of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System. Although not all areas in the system showed declines, the study lends urgency to the need for increased water supplies, for example through water conservation, additional use of surface water, and aquifer-recharging projects.

The paper focuses on a little-studied element of the aquifer system — its variability in both geographic location and depth below the surface. The system underlies the Columbia River Basin in Washington, Idaho and Oregon, providing a quarter to a third of irrigation water across the region.

It is comprised of four main geological layers — three basalt layers formed at different periods in history, and a top layer of sedimentary materials.

“Imagine a layer cake, where you have these chunks of actual cake, which is mostly fractured basalt in this case, and then there’s frosting in between, the parts where water moves more easily,” McLarty said. “That’s our aquifer.”

Unlike a layer cake, however, the layers don’t sit atop each other in a neat, orderly pattern.

“From location to location, that layering looks different,” she said. “Our paper is the first to really quantify that variability, based on observations, in both trends in water level and vulnerability across the entire aquifer.”

Previous groundwater studies have compared the rate of water usage with the volume of water in the aquifer layers, a metric known as saturated thickness. But a lot of that water lies below the depth of current wells. McLarty’s paper measures the water accessible to the current well infrastructure, which they define as available drawdown (ADD), and is a more useful metric to assess how vulnerable groundwater users may be to declines.

“If you have groundwater 15,000 feet deep, that doesn’t help anybody,” McLarty said.

Using state Department of Ecology data collected from nearly 3,000 wells drawing water from the aquifers, researchers calculated trends in the four aquifer layers. The thickest basalt layer — known as the Grand Ronde — had the steepest declines in groundwater, at 1.86 feet per year on average and up to about 7 feet per year. The top layer of sedimentary materials, known as the Overburden layer, had the smallest annual decreases, at 0.22 feet per year.

But the Overburden layer is still vulnerable because it has less available drawdown, the study shows.

McLarty focused on 15 geographic subareas within the state, which highlighted the points of greatest concern. One of these is the Odessa area in Eastern Washington, which is on a pace to consume 10% of available drawdown by 2040 — and half within 70 years.

Wells in the Yakima Basin showed a similar trend to those in Odessa, and most subareas showed a pattern of declining groundwater. However, not every area did. The Spokane Aquifer is gaining water, one of three subareas with a positive trend. McLarty said that this is thanks to very active management and monitoring efforts, including a designated Aquifer Protection Area. Other areas are more complex with some layers declining and some increasing even in the same area, like in the Rock Glade Water Resources Inventory Area. The study shows that you can’t just view groundwater as a single bucket.

McLarty hopes that the new research will encourage efforts to improve groundwater sustainability.

“What I care about most is will people and ecosystems have groundwater in the future to the extent that they need it?” she said. “I hope these data can be used to help prioritize investments in improving water security, by showing where that effort is needed.”

McLarty partners with conservation districts in the aquifer area for groundwater monitoring. If you are interested in having your groundwater monitored, please reach out to McLarty (sasha.richey@wsu.edu) to learn more.

Rapid Melt, Expanding Drought Has Columbia Basin Water Supply At Dalles Dam (April-August) At Only 79 Percent Of Normal

Due to lower-than-normal precipitation in May and an early snowmelt in the Northwest, there will be less water available for salmon and steelhead this summer in the Columbia and Snake river basins as water supply forecasts are continuing their downward slide.

One of the largest declines in water supply is at Montana’s Hungry Horse Dam on the South Fork of the Flathead River where the Bureau of Reclamation’s water supply forecast fell by 28 percentage points from the May forecast of 87 percent of the 30 year average to 59 percent of average (535 thousand acre feet, June – July).

And, in central Washington the state’s Department of Ecology expanded its drought emergency declaration by 19 more watersheds, a result of lower than normal snowpack in addition to the early snowmelt on the east side of the state’s Cascade Mountains.

Ecology said in a news release that the warmer-than-normal April also led to rapid snowmelt – two to four weeks earlier than normal across the Central and North Cascades. This means that less water will be available in summer and early fall when it’s needed most for farms and fish.

“With an especially early spring snowmelt, we saw the need to take action to protect water supplies for the hot months ahead,” said Ecology Director Casey Sixkiller. “Expanding our drought declaration will make more of our state eligible for tools and funding to deal with drought impacts, and help us protect Washington’s farmers, fish and the communities that depend on snowmelt for their water supplies.”

There is no area in the Columbia River basin that has not been impacted by lower water supplies. Across the basin, June water supply forecasts dropped with few exceptions.

In British Columbia, water supplies at the two storage dams in the upper Columbia basin dropped. The water supply measured at Duncan Dam on the Duncan River dropped one percentage point in June to 85 percent of average (1,881 KAF, April – Sept) from the May forecast of 86 percent of normal. The Mica Dam water supply forecast dropped 4 percentage points from 86 percent to 82 percent of normal (10,699f KAF, Jan. – Sept.).

In one of the rare positive forecasts, the water supply at Libby Dam on the Kootenai River rose 2 percentage points to 77 percent of normal (4,670 KAF, April to Aug.) from the May forecast of 75 percent of normal. In May the water supply forecast at the dam set augmented flows for endangered Kootenai River white sturgeon at a Tier 2 level, the lowest level that provides flow augmentation for the sturgeon spawning.

See CBB, June 6, 2025, FLOW AUGMENTATION FROM MONTANA’S LIBBY DAM FOR ESA-LISTED KOOTENAI RIVER WHITE STURGEON BEGINS, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/FLOW-AUGMENTATION-FROM-MONTANAS-LIBBY-DAM-FOR-ESA-LISTED-KOOTENAI-RIVER-WHITE-STURGEON-BEGINS/

The Grand Coulee Dam June water supply forecast dropped 8 percentage points from 88 percent of normal (54,210 KAF) in May to 80 percent of normal (49,051 KAF, April – Sept). Grand Coulee in northern Washington is the culmination of water from the two British Columbia dams and Hungry Horse and Libby dams, both in the U.S.

Some of the largest drops in water supply were in the upper Snake River basin where the American Falls water supply forecast dropped to 52 percent of average, down 30 percentage points from the May forecast of 82 percent, continuing its precipitous drop in supply. American Falls had been over 100 percent of normal in April.

The forecasted water supply at the Lucky Peak Dam on the Boise River is higher than the May forecast. It’s 89 percent of normal (1,183 KAF, April – Sept) beats the May forecast of 85 percent of normal.

Still far below average is Dworshak Dam on the North Fork of the Clearwater River with a forecast now at 74 percent of normal (1,835 KAF, April – July), a drop from the May forecast of 80 percent of normal (2,095 KAF).

Water supply at Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River is 79 percent of normal (15,786 KAF, April – July), down 11 percentage points from the 90 percent of normal (20,116 KAF) in May.

And, the culmination of all the water that flows from the upper Columbia and Snake rivers is at The Dalles Dam where the June water supply is forecasted at 78 percent of normal (69,423 KAF, April – Aug), down from the May forecast of 85 percent of normal (75,683 KAF, April – August).

Water supplies over the summer are unlikely to improve, with NOAA’s June forecast at likely above normal temperature and below normal precipitation across the region. (See https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/) The forecast through August is the same as the Northwest enters its typically driest time of the year (See https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1).

The U.S. Drought Monitor is showing abnormally dry conditions in eastern Washington east of the Cascade Mountains, the Olympic Peninsula and areas of far eastern Washington, the Idaho panhandle and southern Idaho. In addition, in Oregon abnormally dry conditions prevail east of the Cascade Mountains and the far north east (https://www.drought.gov/watersheds/pacific-northwest).

In Washington, Ecology declared drought for the Yakima Basin watersheds on April 8, while issuing a drought advisory for Puget Sound region and portions of the Central and North Cascades, the state agency said in its news release.

Since then, conditions in all of Whatcom and Skagit counties, and portions of Snohomish, King, Pierce, Lewis, Thurston, Okanagan, Chelan, Clallam, Jefferson and Ferry counties have deteriorated due to early and rapid snowmelt, combined with unusually dry April and May weather, Ecology said.

Washington declares drought when there is less than 75 percent of normal water supply and there is the risk of undue hardship or impacts on water users and the environment, Ecology said. Both the hardship and water supply conditions were met in 19 watersheds – Nooksack, Lower Skagit-Samish, Upper Skagit, Stillaguamish, Snohomish, Cedar-Sammamish, Duwamish-Green, Puyallup-White, Nisqually, Chambers-Clover, Elwha-Dungeness, Methow, Okanogan, Chelan, Wenatchee, Entiat, Nespelem, Sanpoil, and Kettle.

“Drought this year is driven both by snowpack and precipitation deficits,” said Caroline Mellor, Ecology’s statewide drought lead. “While it’s normal for snow to melt in the spring, what we’ve seen over the last two months is unusually rapid, with snowpack melting away as much as 33 days earlier than normal in some river basins.”

Spring precipitation, Mellor said, was also low in parts of the state. April precipitation was 26 percent of normal in the eastern Cascade Mountains, 25 percent of normal in Central Puget Sound and 14 percent of normal in the Dungeness watershed.

Streamflow forecasts in multiple parts of the state are also low, Ecology said. The Chelan River is forecasted at 63 percent of normal, Methow River at 71 percent, Stehekin River at 68 percent and Okanogan at 48 percent, as of June 1. The last three rivers feed the Columbia River basin.

“These impacts illustrate the ways that snowpack drought impacts our water supplies in Washington,” Mellor said.

Studies predict that Washington can expect to see snowpack drought to occur 40 percent of the time by 2050.

“Even in the Evergreen State, our water supply is now less reliable in the summer and early fall than it was historically,” Mellor said. “We see the need to build resilience not for the possibility of water shortages, but the reality.”

For background, see:
— CBB, May 14, 2025, COLUMBIA BASIN SNOWMELT, RUNOFF IN MOST AREAS EARLY, RAPID; WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS MAY-SEPTEMBER DROPPING, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/COLUMBIA-BASIN-SNOWMELT-RUNOFF-IN-MOST-AREAS-EARLY-RAPID-WATER-SUPPLY-FORECASTS-MAY-SEPTEMBER-DROPPING/
— CBB, April 12, 2025, SOME MELTING IN MARCH BUT COLUMBIA BASIN WATER SUPPLY FORECAST IMPROVES, 90 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT DALLES DAM (APRIL-SEPT), HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/SOME-MELTING-IN-MARCH-BUT-COLUMBIA-BASIN-WATER-SUPPLY-FORECAST-IMPROVES-90-PERCENT-OF-AVERAGE-AT-DALLES-DAM-APRIL-SEPT/
— CBB, March 15, 2025, COLUMBIA BASIN WATER SUPPLY FORECAST, APRIL-SEPTEMBER, REMAINS BELOW NORMAL, COMING PRECIPITATION COULD HELP, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/COLUMBIA-BASIN-WATER-SUPPLY-FORECAST-APRIL-SEPTEMBER-REMAINS-BELOW-NORMAL-COMING-PRECIPITATION-COULD-HELP/
— CBB, February 7, 2025, THOUGH DOESN’T FEEL LIKE IT RIGHT NOW, COLUMBIA BASIN WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR APRIL-SEPTEMBER STILL DROPPING, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/THOUGH-DOESNT-FEEL-LIKE-IT-RIGHT-NOW-COLUMBIA-BASIN-WATER-SUPPLY-FORECAST-FOR-APRIL-SEPTEMBER-STILL-DROPPING/
— CBB, January 20, 2025, COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN SNOWPACK A MIXED BAG SO FAR, WATER SUPPLY FORECAST AT DALLES DAM (APRIL-AUGUST) NOW 89 PERCENT OF NORMAL, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/COLUMBIA-RIVER-BASIN-SNOWPACK-A-MIXED-BAG-SO-FAR-WATER-SUPPLY-FORECAST-AT-DALLES-DAM-APRIL-AUGUST-NOW-89-PERCENT-OF-NORMAL/

Columbia Basin Snowmelt, Runoff In Most Areas Early, Rapid; Water Supply Forecasts May-September Dropping

Due to a drier and warmer than normal April, the water supply forecasts for May-September for the Columbia and Snake river basins have dropped, according to NOAA’s Northwest River Forecast Center’s last water supply briefing of the season held online this month.

NOAA noted that the annual snowmelt is occurring now and is proceeding rapidly. In some areas the extent of the runoff is a month early, especially in the Washington Cascade Mountains, said Amy Burke, senior hydrologist at the NWRFC.

“There is nothing in the weather forecasts indicating there will be more significant snowpack building and we’re likely looking at an early melt in Canada, while the eastern Washington Cascades could melt out a month to two months early,” Burke said during her online presentation, Thursday, May 1. “Snow is generally melting across the basin,” she said, adding that the previously “monster snowpack” in Oregon is plummeting fast.

Burke predicted peak flows from the runoff to occur at The Dalles Dam in May and below Bonneville Dam in June.

The weather outlook for May, she said, is for either above or below average temperatures and precipitation, providing “no clear signal.” However, summer weather predictions in the Northwest are for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

May water supplies throughout the basin reflect this falling snowpack trend, with British Columbia water supplies at the two storage dams in the upper Columbia basin dropping. The water supply measured at Duncan Dam on the Duncan River dropped two percentage points in May to 86 percent of the 30-year average (1,939-thousand-acre feet). That’s after gaining 10 percentage points April 1 from the March forecast. The Mica Dam water supply forecast dropped 3 percentage points to 86 percent of normal (10,554f KAF). The forecast April 1 was 5 percentage points higher than the March forecast. The forecasts are for the April to September period.

The forecast at Hungry Horse Dam, on the South Fork of the Flathead River in Montana, dropped 3 percentage points to 89 percent of normal (1,997 KAF), after rising 12 percentage points to 92 percent of normal the previous month. At Libby Dam, on the Kootenai River, also in Montana, the water supply was down 4 percentage points to 75 percent of normal (4,975 KAF), after rising 7 percentage points to 79 percent of normal the prior month.

The Grand Coulee Dam May 1 water supply forecast dropped to 88 percent of normal (54,210 KAF) after rising 9 percentage points from March to April to 90 percent of normal.

Some of the largest drops in water supply was in the upper Snake River basin where the American Falls water supply forecast dropped 21 percentage points to 82 percent of normal (it had been up 6 percentage points from the March to the April forecast). The Lucky Peak forecast was down 17 percentage points in May from the April forecast to 102 percent of normal.

Still far below average is Dworshak Dam on the North Fork of the Clearwater River with a forecast now at 80 percent of normal (2,095 KAF), down from the April forecast. Water supply at Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River is down 7 percentage points to 90 percent of normal (20,116 KAF).

The Natural Resources Conservation Service’s May Idaho Water Supply Outlook Report said that April was very dry across Idaho with basins only receiving 6 percent to 75 percent of their normal precipitation.

“Warm, dry conditions in April lead to widespread snowmelt in all basins across Idaho and accelerated the spring runoff season,” said Erin Whorton, Water Supply Specialist for NRCS Idaho. “Streamflow forecasts decreased significantly from last month and water supply concerns have emerged for the Big Wood, Little Wood, Salmon Falls, and Oakley basins. Water supply concerns are still present for the Big and Little Lost basins, as well as the Coeur d’Alene-St. Joe Basin. Water supply remains favorable in the Boise, Payette and Upper Snake basins. We encourage water users to look at the full suite of forecasts for their area and shift towards the 70 or 90% exceedance forecasts if dry conditions continue this spring and summer.”

For the NRCS May Idaho water supply report, go to https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2025-05/borid525.pdf

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?ID), much of the Idaho panhandle and down through the central part of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions. The eastern edges of the state along the Montana border are experiencing moderate drought.

After a month of far below normal precipitation and higher than normal temperatures, Oregon May water supply is generally down from April’s relatively high forecasts. The highest water supply forecasts this year in the Columbia basin have been in Central Oregon. However, most May forecasts in the area have dropped considerably. The forecast at the Grande Ronde River near Troy dropped 34 percentage points to 78 percent of normal and the Owyhee Dam forecast dropped 24 percentage points to 89 percent of normal. Water supply in the Umatilla River at Pendleton is down to 76 percent of normal, a drop of 26 percentage points from the April forecast.

However, the water supply for the Crooked River near Prineville rose by 11 percentage points to a whopping 158 percent of normal.

The Willamette River that flows into the Columbia River on the west side of the Cascade Mountains in Oregon and downstream of Bonneville Dam water supply forecast for May dropped to 76 percent of normal, down 17 percentage points from the April forecast.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OR), eastern and central Oregon is not experiencing drought, but west of the Cascade Mountains, much of the northwest portion of Oregon is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

The east side of the Washington Cascades is continuing to show low water supplies. The water supply for the Okanogan River at Malott is at just 60 percent of normal, down 2 percentage points from April, but the Methow River near Pateros is up to 68 percent of normal, up 9 percentage points (the river water supply had gained 8 percentage points in March), according to Burke.

Jacob Genuise, with the Washington State Climate Office, said in a May 5 blog that snow melt has begun in earnest this month.

“Snowpack has fallen further behind our typical 1991-2020 totals as of May 1, 2025, largely as a result of dry conditions, warmer than normal temperatures, and earlier than usual melt,” he wrote. “Snow water equivalent (SWE) fell furthest behind in the Central Columbia watershed, which as of May 1st has only 49% of median SWE.”

The Upper and Lower Yakima River as of May 1 was 52 percent and 68 percent of median SWE and the Lower Columbia, Lower Pend Oreille, and Lower Snake-Walla Walla river watersheds are now running near-normal, although the percentages of median have all declined since April 1st at which point these watersheds had above normal snowpack, Genuise wrote.

“Altogether, this indicates that many watersheds are melting out a bit sooner than normal this year,” he wrote. “Along with below normal snowpack this year, the early melt-out reinforces concerns for water resources later in the warm season.”

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?WA), moderate drought conditions continue in much of the Cascade Mountains and western Cascade Foothills, as well as in far eastern Washington.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s NRCS snowpack report includes this information:
1. Salmon River basin: 102% of normal, down 12% from April 1).
2. Clearwater River basin: 85% of normal, down 12%.
3. Umatilla River basin: 140% of normal, down 18%.
4. Walla Walla River basin: 82% of normal, down 33%.
5. Upper Grand Ronde basin: 100% of normal, down 25%.
6. Imnaha River basin: 110% of normal, down 15%.
7. John Day River basin: 110% of normal, down 53%.
8. Upper Deschutes River basin: 91% of normal, down 30%.
9. Methow River basin: 67% of normal, down 8%.
10. Wenatchee River basin: 44% of normal, down 30%.
11. Upper Yakima River basin: 47% of normal, down 29%.
12. Lower Yakima River basin: 59% of normal, down 59%.
13. Klickitat River basin: 80% of normal, down 32%.
14. Mt. Hood drainage (Hood, Sandy, Lower Deschutes): 61% of normal, down 31%.
11. Coeur D’ Alene basin: 70% of normal, down 16%.
12. Western Montana (five sub-basins): 84% of normal, down 6%.
13. Henrys Fork-Teton River, ID, basins: 81% of normal, down 17%.
14. Big Wood River, ID, basin: 91% of normal, down 20%.
15. Salmon Falls, ID, basin: 70% of normal, down 55%.

This information was compiled by Kyle Dittmer, hydrologist with the Columbia River InterTribal Fish Commission, and included in his May and spring weather outlook/climate report released April 3.

NOAA’s May forecast is for “Likely” Above normal Temperature (eastern WA, ID, MT) and Above normal Precipitation (southern ID) with near normal conditions elsewhere across the PNW.

See official forecast: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

For background, see:
— CBB, April 12, 2025, Some Melting In March But Columbia Basin Water Supply Forecast Improves, 90 Percent Of Average At Dalles Dam (April-Sept), https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/some-melting-in-march-but-columbia-basin-water-supply-forecast-improves-90-percent-of-average-at-dalles-dam-april-sept/
— CBB, March 15, 2025, Columbia Basin Water Supply Forecast, April-September, Remains Below Normal, Coming Precipitation Could Help, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-basin-water-supply-forecast-april-september-remains-below-normal-coming-precipitation-could-help/
— CBB, February 7, 2025, Though Doesn’t Feel Like It Right Now, Columbia Basin Water Supply Forecast For April-September Still Dropping, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/though-doesnt-feel-like-it-right-now-columbia-basin-water-supply-forecast-for-april-september-still-dropping/
— CBB, January 20, 2025, Columbia River Basin Snowpack A Mixed Bag So Far, Water Supply Forecast At Dalles Dam (April-August) Now 89 Percent Of Normal, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-river-basin-snowpack-a-mixed-bag-so-far-water-supply-forecast-at-dalles-dam-april-august-now-89-percent-of-normal/

Spring Runoff Older Than You Think: Hydrologists Show Mountain Streamflow Old Snowmelt On Years-Long Underground Journey

Growing communities and extensive agriculture throughout the Western United States rely on meltwater that spills out of snow-capped mountains every spring. The models for predicting the amount of this streamflow available each year have long assumed that a small fraction of snowmelt each year enters shallow soil, with the remainder rapidly exiting in rivers and creeks.

New research from University of Utah hydrologists, however, suggests that streamflow generation is much more complicated. Most spring runoff heading to reservoirs is actually several years old, indicating that most mountain snowfall has a years-long invisible journey as groundwater before it leaves the mountains.
The findings also indicate there is an order of magnitude more water stored underground than most Western water managers account for, said research leader Paul Brooks, a professor of geology and geophysics.

“On average, it takes over five years for a snowflake that falls in the mountains to exit as streamflow,” Brooks said. “Most of our models, whether for predicting streamflow or predicting how much water trees will have in dry years, are based on the idea that there’s very little water stored in the mountains. Now we know that that’s not the case. Most of the water goes into the ground and it sits there for somewhere between three and 15 years before it’s either used by plants or it goes into the streams.”

The team collected runoff samples at 42 sites and used tritium isotope analysis to determine the age of the water, that is how much time elapsed since it fell from the sky as snow.

Published this week in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment, the findings were co-authored by Utah geology professors Sara Warix and Kip Solomon in collaboration with research scientists around the West.

Determining the age of mountain streamflow is a prerequisite for predicting how mountain hydrology will respond to changes in climate and land use, the researchers said.

“We know if our streams are being supported by water that’s 5 to 15 years old, there’s got to be a lag between input storage and response. And so even though our models have been good in the past, good enough to make decisions about water use, the inputs to our systems are changing. There’s going to be changes throughout the subsurface that are reflected in streams,” Warix said. “If we want to make good decisions moving forward, we need to incorporate that groundwater storage component because past mechanisms, past processes are not going to be the same in 20 or 50 years.”

Brooks conducted the sampling in 2022 while on sabbatical, visiting 42 sites twice, once in the midwinter to capture the stream’s “base flow” that was presumably fed entirely by groundwater and again during the spring runoff.

“The sampling sites are locations where there was a fair amount of existing research, a geographical distribution from the front range of Colorado to the eastern slopes of the Sierra,” Brooks said. The sites were in Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, California and New Mexico, representing five major river basins. Most have long-term research catchments funded by the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Science Foundation or the Department of Energy.

The state of Utah’s tracking is particularly robust, providing continuous streamflow data dating back 120 years. It’s an unparalleled dataset that has enabled hydrologists to document historic cycles in climate and streamflow that would otherwise have been missed, Brooks said.

According to Solomon, the vast majority of Earth’s fresh, usable water is underground, but just how much is there remains a puzzle. Dating water offers clues, and for determining the age of water, Solomon turns to tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen with a half-life of 12.3 years.

Tritium is produced naturally in the upper atmosphere, is a byproduct of nuclear reactors, and was once produced during weapons testing during the Cold War. By determining how many atoms of tritium are in a water sample relative to other hydrogen atoms, scientists can calculate when water fell from the sky as precipitation—but only as far back as a century.

The average age of the runoff sampled in the study varies among the catchment basins depending on their geology. The more porous the ground, the older its water is, since the subsurface can hold a lot more water. By contrast, glaciated canyons with low permeability and shallow bedrock, such as Utah’s Little Cottonwood Canyon, provide far less subsurface storage and younger waters, according to the study.

For decades, federal and state water managers have relied on a network of snowpack monitoring sites to provide data to guide forecasts of water availability for the upcoming year. It’s now clear that such snowpack data doesn’t provide a complete picture, according to the researchers.

“For much of the West, especially the Interior West where this study is based, our models have been losing skill,” Brooks said.

The growing disconnect between snowfall, snowpack volumes and streamflow is driven by variability in these large, previously unquantified subsurface water stores. As a case in point, Brooks highlighted the 2022 water year, which saw snowpacks in many Western states that were near or just below average. Yet that year experienced record low groundwater storage, resulting in much below average spring streamflow.

The study titled “Groundwater dominates snowmelt runoff and controls streamflow efficiency in the western United States,” was published May 3 in Nature Communications Earth & Environment and was supported by the National Science Foundation. The research team included several scientists from other research universities in Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho and Nevada, as well as the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Agriculture.

Some Melting In March But Columbia Basin Water Supply Forecast Improves, 90 Percent Of Average At Dalles Dam (April-Sept)

Warmer temperatures with some snowmelt and near- or wetter-than-normal precipitation in much of the Columbia River basin in March led to some early runoff but overall resulted in higher April-Sept. water supply forecasts and a better outlook for stream flows in the basin that will aid juvenile and adult salmon and steelhead migrations this summer, according to a NOAA water supply briefing last week.
Snowpack improved in the eastern basin along the west side of the Rocky Mountains, as well as in the upper Snake River during March, said Henry Pai, senior hydrologist at the NWRFC, during his online presentation, Thursday, April 3. However, while central Oregon snowpack still has “incredible amounts” with snowmelt that is causing some flooding in the Malheur River basin, snowpack along the east side of the Washington Cascade Mountains continues to be much lower than normal.
Upper Columbia River basin water supplies improved the most in March, but are still lower than normal, with the forecast at two of storage dams in British Columbia on the rise. Duncan Dam, on the Duncan River, is now predicted to be 88 percent of normal (1.973-million-acre feet, April – Sept.), a rise of 10 percentage points from the dam’s March forecast. The forecast at Mica Dam on the Columbia River rose 5 percentage points to 88 percent of normal (10.76 MAF, April – Sept.).
The forecast at Hungry Horse Dam, on the South Fork of the Flathead River in Montana, rose to 92 percent of normal (1.738 MAF April – Aug.), up 12 percentage points, and at Libby Dam, on the Kootenai River, also in Montana, the water supply was up 7 percentage points to 79 percent of normal.
Grand Coulee Dam is at 90 percent of normal (55.48 MAF, April – Sept.), which is up 9 percentage points from the March water supply forecast.
The Dalles Dam forecast is for a 90 percent of average water supply (85.186 MAF, April – September), a five-percentage-point increase over the 85 percent of average forecast in early March, The Dalles water supply is the culmination of all water available upstream in the Columbia and Snake rivers. The forecast at the dam has improved from a low 82 percent in February to 85 percent in March and now to 90 percent of average in April.
The most impressive water supply forecasts are in central Oregon where the forecast for Crooked River at Prineville is at 147 percent of normal, up 4 percentage points from March, the Grande Ronde at Troy is at 112 percent of normal, down 6 percentage points, and the Owyhee Dam is at 113 percent of normal, but is down 18 percentage point as the snowpack has begun to melt. In addition, the Umatilla River at Pendleton is at 98 percent of normal, down 9 percentage points.
The April 1 Oregon Water Supply Outlook Report by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service said that overall, snowpack across much of the state is above normal, with near normal snowpack in the Hood, Sandy, and Lower Deschutes Basin. Low-elevation (below 4,000 ft) snowpack on the western side of the central and northern Oregon Cascade Range remains below normal.
The “onset of snowmelt has begun at the larger basin scale across Oregon, with anomalously warm temperatures in the second half of March initiating the melt season. The rate of snowmelt has been particularly rapid in southeastern Oregon in the Blue Mountain Range, contributing to flood conditions in parts of Harney County. Snowpack in this region and across much of eastern and southern Oregon have been robust this year, which bodes well for water supply but does and has presented, in some cases, enhanced flood risks moving into the melt season.”
The April Oregon Water Supply Outlook Report is here: https://efotg.sc.egov.usda.gov/references/public/OR/WSOR_April_2025_OR.pdf
The least impressive water supply is in an area the U.S. Drought Monitor is showing is in moderate to abnormally dry drought: that’s on the east side of the Washington Cascades. The water supply for the Okanogan River at Malott is at just 62 percent of normal, up 5 percentage points, and the Methow River near Pateros is at 59 percent of normal, up 8 percentage points.
“Although precipitation for March was above normal for all major basins in the state, there’s been little improvement to pervasive and persistent deficits in both water year-to-date (WYTD) precipitation and snowpack across much of the central and northern Washington Cascades,” the April 1 Washington Water Supply Outlook Report by the NRCS said. “Snowpack is below 70% at several monitoring sites near Washington Pass (SR20) and near the I-90 corridor. Snowpack within in the Upper Yakima Basin has degraded as percent of normal, notably in the Wenatchee Mountains, since March 1. Since the typical timing for peak snowpack for all major basins is here or very near, drastic changes to conditions are becoming less likely.”
 It added that snowpack is near to slightly above normal across the southern Washington Cascades and the northern Blue Mountains in eastern Washington. Water supply forecast for the Upper Yakima has fallen and water supply shortages should be expected for the Yakima Basin, despite forecast improvements for reservoir inflows in the Naches Basin. The water supply outlook remains below normal for the Okanogan, Wenatchee, and Chelan basins.
The April Washington Water Supply Outlook Report is here: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/WSOR_April_2025_WA.pdf
The upper Snake River basin April water supply forecasts are mostly above normal, with American Falls at 103 percent of normal, up 6 percentage points, and Lucky Peak at 119 percent of normal, up 7 percentage points. Still below average is Dworshak Dam on the North Fork of the Clearwater River at 92 percent of normal (2.281 MAF, April – July), but up 2 percentage points over the March forecast. Water supply at Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River is at 98 percent of normal (22.841 MAF, April – September), down 3 percentage points.
“The near to above normal snowpack across many basins in Idaho bodes well for a good water supply season this water year,” the Idaho Natural Resources Conservation Service’s April report says. “Of course, what happens during the spring and summer will strongly influence whether there is enough water to go around, but with this year’s snowpack and the expectation reservoirs will fill, conditions are setting water users up for success. The only areas of concern for water supply are in the Coeur d’Alene-St. Joe, Big Lost, Little Lost and Birch-Medicine Lodge-Beaver-Camas basins where the snowpack is below normal.”
The April Idaho Water Supply Outlook Report is here: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2025-04/borid425.pdf
The Idaho Water Supply Outlook report says that the snowpack has peaked in all river basins across Idaho. “Cool temperatures at the end of March halted the snowpack melt that began around March 24 in all basins, but the upcoming warm and dry weather is almost guaranteed to continue widespread melt. April could still bring some cooler weather that slows down the snowpack melt rate, but right now, it looks like winter has ended and spring has officially arrived in Idaho. Thanks to the robust snowpack, water supply looks good across most of Idaho.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s NRCS, snowpack report includes this information:
1. Salmon River basin: 114% of normal, unchanged from March 1).
2. Clearwater River basin: 97% of normal, up 2%.
3. Umatilla River basin: 158% of normal, up 11%.
4. Walla Walla River basin: 115% of normal, up 7%.
5. Upper Grand Ronde basin: 125% of normal, up 2%.
6. Imnaha River basin: 125% of normal, up 5%.
7. John Day River basin: 163% of normal, up 5%.
8. Upper Deschutes River basin: 121% of normal, up 10%.
9. Methow River basin: 75% of normal, down 5%.
10. Wenatchee River basin: 74% of normal, down 7%.
11. Upper Yakima River basin: 76% of normal, down 8%.
12. Lower Yakima River basin: 108% of normal, up 24%.
13. Klickitat River basin: 112% of normal, up 19%.
14. Mt. Hood drainage (Hood, Sandy, Lower Deschutes): 92% of normal, up 7%.
11. Coeur D’ Alene basin: 86% of normal, up 4%.
12. Western Montana (five sub-basins): 90% of normal, up 2%.
13. Henrys Fork-Teton River, ID, basins: 99% of normal, unchanged.
14. Big Wood River, ID, basin: 111% of normal, down 5%.
15. Salmon Falls, ID, basin: 125% of normal, up 9%.
This information was compiled by Kyle Dittmer, hydrologist with the Columbia River InterTribal Fish Commission, and included in his April and spring weather outlook/climate report released April 3.
Temperature and precipitation over the next 90 days is forecasted by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center as equal chances of above or below average.
April water supply information is here: https://public.crohms.org/tmt/documents/WSF/WSF_WY25_04.pdf
For background, see:
— CBB, March 15, 2025, Columbia Basin Water Supply Forecast, April-September, Remains Below Normal, Coming Precipitation Could Help, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-basin-water-supply-forecast-april-september-remains-below-normal-coming-precipitation-could-help/
— CBB, February 7, 2025, Though Doesn’t Feel Like It Right Now, Columbia Basin Water Supply Forecast For April-September Still Dropping, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/though-doesnt-feel-like-it-right-now-columbia-basin-water-supply-forecast-for-april-september-still-dropping/
— CBB, January 20, 2025, Columbia River Basin Snowpack A Mixed Bag So Far, Water Supply Forecast At Dalles Dam (April-August) Now 89 Percent Of Normal, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-river-basin-snowpack-a-mixed-bag-so-far-water-supply-forecast-at-dalles-dam-april-august-now-89-percent-of-normal/

Corps Still Determining How To Implement Changes At Willamette Valley Dams With Funding Still Uncertain

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is still determining “how to proceed” in implementing actions directed by the 2024 Water Resources Development Act and a new jeopardy biological opinion for its 13 Willamette River projects completed by NOAA Fisheries Dec. 26.

The Corps says that it still needs funds from Congress that it could get through the annual federal budget that is working its way through the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, but that the efforts are also complicated by the change in administration at the federal government.

“We are working with our headquarters (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters) and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works (ASA-[CW]) to determine how to proceed with the implementation of the 2024 Water Resources Development Act and the NMFS Biological Opinion,” Corps spokesperson Kerry Solan said. “Those efforts have been complicated by the administration change and the need to appoint a new ASA(CW).”

The WRDA legislation, signed by then President Joe Biden Jan. 4, authorizes Corps projects throughout the nation, but specifically for its Willamette projects the 2024 WRDA directs the Corps to consider what the system and the river would be like without hydropower. It also calls on the Corps to pause work on plans for two juvenile fish passage structures at Detroit (North Santiam River) and Green Peter (South Santiam River) dams.

Just eight of the Corps Willamette dams have the ability to generate electricity, but that power comes at a high price (some five times higher than Columbia River dam generation). The Corps’ Willamette dams generate just 1 percent of the region’s electricity while losing some $700 million over the course of 20 years.

An article produced by ProPublica’s Local Reporting Network in partnership with Oregon Public Broadcasting and republished by permission in the Columbia Basin Bulletin, said that “The (WRDA) mandate says the Corps needs to shelve designs for its fish collectors — essentially massive floating vacuums expected to cost $170 million to $450 million each — until it finishes studying what the river system would look like without hydropower. The Corps must then include that scenario in its long-term designs for the river.”

See CBB, January 20, 2025, ‘Killing Salmon To Lose Money’: A Costly, Questionable Plan On Oregon’s Willamette River, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/killing-salmon-to-lose-money-a-costly-questionable-plan-on-oregons-willamette-river/

After NOAA had evaluated a revised proposed action submitted to the agency by the Corps in August 2024, it determined the proposed action would jeopardize the continued existence of upper Willamette River Chinook salmon and steelhead, both listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act, and that the proposed action would result in adverse modification of the species’ designated critical habitat.

NOAA went on to list other salmonid species in the Willamette and Columbia river systems that would be adversely impacted, including Lower Columbia River Chinook salmon, Upper Columbia spring-run Chinook salmon, Snake River spring/summer-run Chinook salmon, Snake River fall run Chinook salmon, Columbia River chum salmon (O. keta), Lower Columbia River coho salmon (O. kisutch), Snake River sockeye salmon (O. nerka), Lower Columbia River steelhead, Middle Columbia River steelhead, Upper Columbia River steelhead, Snake River Basin steelhead, and Southern Resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) and their designated critical habitat.

“However, the proposed action is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of these species or result in the destruction or adverse modification of their critical habitat,” NOAA concluded in its BiOp.

NOAA’s 2024 BiOp focuses on the Corps’ preferred alternative from the Corps’ Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for the Willamette Valley System, with some key additions and clarifications that focus on implementation, the BiOp says.

The BiOp says the proposed action consists of the continued operation and maintenance of the Willamette system for the congressionally designated authorized purposes of flood control, hydropower, irrigation, navigation, recreation, fish and wildlife, water supply and quality, as well as actions to ensure the system’s operations comply with the ESA.

“This includes the continued operation of existing structures and facilities, modifications to operations and construction, and operation and maintenance of new structures,” the BiOp says. “The new elements of the proposed action were developed to improve fish passage through the WVS dams using a combination of modified operations and new structures. It also includes measures to improve downstream water quality, balance water management flexibility, and reduce project effects for ESA-listed fish.”

In more detail, the BiOp lists as components of the proposed action as:

— An adaptive management and implementation plan, which is a roadmap that lays out the strategy and schedule for implementation, ongoing assessment of the proposed action, and proposed improvements to the Willamette Action Team for Ecosystem Restoration governance and coordination process.

— In addition, the BiOp action includes downstream fish passage structures to be constructed at Detroit Dam, Lookout Point Dam, and on a smaller scale at Foster Dam.

— A structure to improve downstream water temperature management to be constructed at Detroit Dam.

— Changes to operations to facilitate downstream fish passage at Cougar and Green Peter dams.

— The other operational change is a new integrated temperature and habitat flow regime.

The Corps had failed to complete a number of the activities that were listed in the 2008 BiOp and eventually was taken to court.

The Corps’ court involvement is due to a lawsuit by Northwest Environmental Defense Center, WildEarth Guardians and the Native Fish Society. The groups asked the U.S. District Court of Oregon to order the Corps and NOAA Fisheries to reevaluate the impacts of the Corps’ Willamette Valley dams on wild upper Willamette River winter steelhead and wild Spring Chinook. They asked the court to order the two agencies to reinitiate consultation and to make immediate operational adjustments to dams on four tributaries of the Willamette River (North Santiam, South Santiam, McKenzie and Middle Fork Willamette) that the groups say block between 40 and 90 percent of spawning habitat.

In his summary judgement ruling in the case, Aug. 17, 2020, Judge Marco Hernandez said of the Corps that “Far short of moving towards recovery, the Corps is pushing the UWR Chinook and steelhead even closer to the brink of extinction. The record demonstrates that the listed salmonids are in a more precarious condition today than they were at the time NMFS issued the 2008 BiOp.”

“The directive from Congress gives us all the chance to figure out what makes the most sense in the long term while the Biological Opinion requirements will hopefully kickstart recover in the near term,” Jennifer Fairbrother, legislative and policy director at The Native Fish Society, said in a Fly Lords magazine interview this month. “It’s time for the Corps to lay out the full suite of options for recovering fish in the Willamette basin. This means assessing whether eliminating commercial hydropower production can save our fish and save northwest ratepayers money. Of course, given the Corps’ track record of flouting Congressional directives, we’re skeptical that the Corps will complete this analysis in anything resembling a meaningful timeframe, if ever.

Still funding the required actions in the 2024 BiOp is an issue for the Corps, as it also was for completing required activities in the 2008 BiOp, according to Solan.

“In order to implement the biological opinion and complete any necessary actions directed by WRDA, we would require funds from Congress because USACE primarily receives funding for its various activities, including implementing Biological Opinions and WRDA projects, through the annual federal budget,” Solan said.

“If we look back, the 2021 injunction was related to funding for BiOp measures,” Solan said. “The (2008) BiOp laid out a series of measures intended to mitigate harm on ESA-listed species in the Willamette River Basin.

“While Portland District carried out a series of actions, we did not accomplish everything because we did not receive funding for all the measures. This is a function of how the annual appropriations process unfolds when there are many USACE projects/measures across the nation that need appropriations, and there are limited funds.”

NOAA’s 2024 BiOp of the Corps’ Willamette Valley system is here: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/s3//2024-12/WCRO-2023-00324-PERM-BiOp-WillametteValleySystem-20241226.pdf

For background, see:

— CBB, February 7, 2025, Wild Vs. Hatchery: Court Rules Willamette Hatchery Summer Steelhead Harm Wild Winter Steelhead, Seeks Remedies, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/wild-vs-hatchery-court-rules-willamette-hatchery-summer-steelhead-harm-wild-winter-steelhead-seeks-remedies/

— CBB, December 9, 2024, Court-Ordered Drawdown In Willamette Valley To Aid Salmon Halted Early Due To Downstream Water Quality Issues, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/court-ordered-drawdown-in-willamette-valley-to-aid-salmon-halted-early-due-to-downstream-water-quality-issues/

— CBB, October 12, 2023, COURT ORDERED DRAWDOWN OF WILLAMETTE RESERVOIR TO AID ESA SALMON LEADS TO DEATH FOR THOUSANDS OF KOKANEE, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/COURT-ORDERED-DRAWDOWN-OF-WILLAMETTE-RESERVOIR-TO-AID-ESA-SALMON-LEADS-TO-DEATH-FOR-THOUSANDS-OF-KOKANEE/

— CBB, October 8, 2024, Corps Holds Information Sessions To Explain Willamette Dams’ Drawdowns To Aid Salmon, Steelhead, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/corps-holds-information-sessions-to-explain-willamette-dams-drawdowns-to-aid-salmon-steelhead/

Lawsuit Challenges Proposed Massive Gold Mine On Idaho’s South Fork Salmon River

Local and national conservation groups have sued the U.S. Forest Service to challenge its approval of the Stibnite Gold Project, an open-pit cyanide leach gold mine in Idaho’s Salmon River Mountains. The groups say the mine would jeopardize public health and clean water, harm threatened plants and animals, and permanently scar thousands of acres of public land in the headwaters of the South Fork Salmon River.

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Though Doesn’t Feel Like It Right Now, Columbia Basin Water Supply Forecast For April-September Still Dropping

A drier than normal January is contributing to February’s lower Columbia River basin water supply forecasts for the months ahead. As was the case in early January, snow water content and water supplies vary throughout the region, but, overall, all are lower than a month ago, according to a NOAA Northwest River Forecast Center water supply briefing this week.

However, as dry as January was, early February precipitation and cold weather in many of the areas offered some hope that snowpack and water supplies could improve this month, particularly in the southern basin.

For the next 10 days, the Northwest River Forecast Center is predicting precipitation in the southern portions of the Columbia basin – east of the Cascade Mountains to eastern Idaho and north towards Yakima and the Tri-Cities that is 125 percent to 175 percent higher than normal. That drops to near normal in a slim band just north of that area and to 50 to 75 percent of normal in a swath across Washington, northern Idaho and southwest Montana. British Columbia precipitation is predicted at below 50 percent of normal for the next 10 days.

In its early January briefing, the NWRFC said that the 2025 water year got off to a slow start due to a below normal April to September 2024 runoff in the northern portions of the basin. That continued with a dry but cool January, dampening river runoff and water supplies throughout the basin in February.

While there is a mix of conditions across the basin, there is a clear distinction between the northern basin where snowpack and water supplies are lower than normal, and the southern areas, where they are generally higher than normal, said Henry Pai, senior hydrologist at the NWRFC, during his online presentation, Thursday, February 6. Still, he added, it is difficult to find any improvement across the basin when looking at water year runoff and water supply forecasts.

Runoff and water supply are largely the same, but with a timing difference. Runoff measures what has been observed during the water year Oct. 1 and, in this case, ending Feb. 5. It is not a forecast since it has already happened. Water supply is a forecast for a supply of water the region can expect in the future.

Pai pointed to runoff in the Canadian portion of the basin where at Mica Dam, runoff water year to date is 123 percent of normal, but that is lower by 6 percentage points than it was in early January. Duncan is at 124 percent of normal, also down 6 percentage points.

Water supply forecasts can be vastly different than water runoff, especially this year. The February water supply forecast at Mica for April through September is 80 percent of normal, down 5 percentage points from the January water supply forecast, which was also the first of the year. For Duncan, the water supply forecast is 80 percent of normal, down 7 percentage points.

Further downstream and in U.S. waters, runoff is even lower, with Libby Dam in Northwest Montana on the Kootenai River at 84 percent of normal, down 5 percentage points, Hungry Horse Dam on the South Fork of the Flathead River, also in Montana, at 60 percent of normal, down 1 percentage point, and Grand Coulee Dam on the mainstem Columbia River at 84 percent of normal, down 7 percentage points.

The February water supply forecast for Libby Dam April through September is 4.72 MAF, 73 percent of normal, down 10 percentage points from the January forecast. The Hungry Horse forecast is at 1.67 MAF, 76 percent of normal, down 7 percentage points, and at Grand Coulee Dam, the forecast is 82 percent, down 6 percentage points.

In the Snake River, year to date runoff at American Falls is at 83 percent of normal, the same as it was in January. Lower Granite Dam is 79 percent of normal, down 3 percentage points and Dworshak is at 72 percent, down 8 percentage points.

Much of this can be explained by changes in the Idaho snowpack, which has dropped from January’s amounts, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Idaho (https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/idaho/snow-survey?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery).

“Thanks to an abnormally dry January, snowpack percentages compared to normal decreased significantly. said Erin Whorton, Water Supply Specialist for NRCS Idaho. “As of February 1, basin-wide snowpack percentages range from 68 to 119%. This means that snow drought conditions developed in the Wood, Lost, Upper Snake, Bear, Salmon, Clearwater and Coeur d’Alene-St. Joe basins during January.”

“In terms of total water year precipitation, conditions are driest in the Wood and Lost basins (62% to 76%) and wettest along the southern border of Idaho (82 to 97%). Fortunately, at report time, significant snowfall is occurring across the state. Hopefully, these storms will alleviate snow drought conditions.”

The good news is that February water supply forecasts at Snake River dams for April-September are higher. At American Falls the forecast is at 94 percent of normal, up 21 percentage points, and at Lower Granite the forecast is 22.512 MAF, 101 percent of normal, up 7 percentage points, and at Dworshak Dam the forecast is 2.354 MAF, 90 percent of normal, up 1 percentage point.

The culmination of all water available upstream in the Columbia and Snake rivers is measured at The Dalles Dam where the water year runoff is 82 percent of normal. That’s down 6 percentage points and lower than Grand Coulee’s water year runoff at 84 percent of normal. Pei said that’s because water coming out of the Washington Cascade Mountains is so low. For example, the Methow River water year runoff is at a low 65 percent of normal, although that is up 2 percentage points. The Yakima River is at 51 percent of normal, down 3 percentage points and the Walla Walla River is at 66 percent of normal, down 16 percentage points.

The Dalles Dam February water supply forecast is at 79.96 MAF, 85 percent of normal, down 3 percentage points, and slightly higher than at Coulee. The water supply forecast for the Methow River is at 50 percent of normal, down 10 percentage points. The Yakima River water supply is at 99 percent, down 2 percentage points, and the Walla Walla River is at 78 percent of normal, down 12 percentage points from the January water supply forecast.

Even areas where snow water equivalent has been high this year saw a drop during January and that is now reflected in the February water year runoff. The Umatilla River water year runoff is 101 percent of normal, but that’s down 30 percentage points from January’s runoff. The Grande Ronde is 83 of normal, down 9 percentage points, the Owyhee water year runoff is at 109 percent, down 16 percentage points, and the Crooked River is at 188 percent of normal, but that has dropped 66 percentage points since early January.

Unlike water year runoff where runoff is dropping, water supply is rising in the Umatilla River where it is at 104 percent of normal, up 4 percentage points higher than early January. Likewise, the Grande Ronde River water supply is up at 104 percent of normal, 4 percentage points higher, the Owyhee water supply is at 115 percent of normal, up 28 percentage points, and the Crooked River is at 194 percent of normal, a huge gain in one month with a 75-percentage point rise.

Water Supply information is here: https://public.crohms.org/tmt/documents/WSF/WSF_WY25_02.pdf

For background, see:

— CBB, January 20, 2025, Columbia River Basin snowpack a mixed bag so far, water supply forecast at Dalles Dam (April-August) now 89 percent of normal, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-river-basin-snowpack-a-mixed-bag-so-far-water-supply-forecast-at-dalles-dam-april-august-now-89-percent-of-normal/

— CBB, June 21, 2024, Basin summer water supply? Record low snowpacks in the north, above normal Southern Idaho, Dalles Dam runoff 77 percent of average, https://staging.columbiabasinbulletin.org/basin-summer-water-supply-record-low-snowpacks-in-the-north-above-normal-southern-idaho-dalles-dam-runoff-77-percent-of-average/

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