Above graphic: The Council’s new forecast projects potential trajectories of electricity demand for data centers and tech, electric vehicles and transportation, as well as green hydrogen production. The trajectories for electric vehicles could be on par with the low- to middle-ends of tech as soon as the 2030s – with hydrogen not far behind.
Northwest states have been consuming about 22,000 average megawatts of electricity per year, but the Northwest Power and Conservation Council is forecasting double that amount by 2046 to as much as 44,000 aMW, according to a just-completed initial forecast of Northwest energy demand.
The largest sources of this doubling of electricity use, according to the Council’s Power Division staff, are residential and commercial buildings, data centers and chip fabrication facilities, electric vehicles and hydrogen production.
For the ninth time since its inception in 1980, the Council’s Power Division staff completed a portion of its latest iteration of a Power Plan (the Ninth Power Plan), introducing April 29 its latest initial forecast of electricity demand growth in the Columbia River basin states of Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana. The forecast is in preparation for its next Power Plan due out next year.
The Ninth Power Plan, the Council says in a blog, will assure the region of an adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable power supply. The plan’s cost-effective resource strategy will ensure the power system’s adequacy and reliability risks remain within established thresholds. The draft power plan will be ready for public review and comment by July 2026, with a final version adopted by the end of 2026.
“Our new demand forecast helps us understand the potential growing and evolving energy needs of the communities, businesses, and industries in our region,” said Oregon Council Member Margi Hoffmann. “The Council will develop a plan for meeting all these needs over the next 20 years, while also protecting and mitigating for fish and wildlife in the Columbia River Basin through our next Fish and Wildlife Program. Throughout 2025 and 2026, we will be addressing the growing need for energy along with the urgent need to protect fish and wildlife in our Basin.”
Annual energy is measured in aMW, which is one-million watts delivered continuously 24-hours a day for a year, or 8,760 megawatt-hours, according to a Fast Fact pocket guide published by the Council. One average megawatt is enough electricity to power about 730 homes for a year.
The forecast released by the Council late last month shows a range of potential electricity demand growth over the next two decades, a Council blog says. Senior Energy Forecasting Analyst Steve Simmons, Senior Power Analyst Tomás Morrissey, and Power System Analyst Jake Kennedy led the April 29 presentation on the forecast during an online meeting of the Council.
The forecast projects annual energy demand growth to grow from about 22,000 aMW and reaching between 31,000-44,000 aMW by 2046, varying by trajectory. Already, an increasing trajectory has been periodically evident. The Northwest electricity grid winter peak in February 2025 was about 35,500 MW, an increase over the 2023 winter peak of 35,100 MW, the blog says. During a heatwave in July 2024, the region reached a summer peak of 33,300 MW. By 2046, the forecast trajectories project peak demands ranging between 47,000-60,000 MW.
“Heatwaves and winter storms have stressed our power system in recent years,” said Montana Council Member Doug Grob. “Every resident and business owner in the Northwest must be assured that their power supply will be there when it’s needed most – from our major urban centers out to the rural homeowners, small businesses, farmers, and ranchers who live at the ends of the power lines. Planning for an adequate and reliable power supply is our legal duty under the Northwest Power Act. The Council will ensure this is achieved in the Ninth Power Plan.”
Staff is projecting an annual average growth rate range for energy of between 1.8 percent and 3.1 percent from 2027-2046.
The presentation with the full analysis is at https://www.nwcouncil.org/fs/19380/2025_0429_2.pdf
For a video of the presentation, go to https://vimeo.com/1080017998#t=10m28s
Not included in the analysis are available and cost-effective energy efficiency, demand response and rooftop solar, all of which could reduce or slow growth. Those items, the Council blog says, will be identified through the plan analysis and be included in the resource strategy for the Council’s next power plan.
“These resources flatten peaks and reduce electricity demand,” the blog says. “For example, unmanaged electric-vehicle charging that often occurs in after-work hours can coincide with other peak hour power needs. Demand response programs could manage the charging in several different ways that have less impact on power system peaks – such as after midnight. The initial load forecast assumes unmanaged charging, leaving the demand response potential of managed charging as an option for Power Division staff’s computer models to choose when they analyze different resource strategies for building out the Northwest electricity grid in the future.”
Power Division staff will present these resources to the Council at its meetings in May and June. They presented the rooftop solar potential at the Council’s April meeting. That analysis found cumulative rooftop solar potential will surpass 500 aMW in 2031 and grow to above 4,000 aMW by 2046 (https://www.nwcouncil.org/fs/19338/2025_04_04.pdf).
Once the Council staff decides how much energy efficiency, rooftop solar, and demand response is cost-effective, it will re-run the load forecast to get the final version to include in the Ninth Plan.
“The next two years are a critical juncture for planning our energy future in the Pacific Northwest,” said Washington Council Member K.C. Golden. “The Northwest Power Act gives everyone a seat at the table as the region navigates critical decisions that will shape our economy and environment going forward. The stakes are high and the challenges are real. We invite Northwest residents to join us and weigh in as we develop our next plan.”
The Council says the work by its Power Division is the most complex, data-intensive and sophisticated load forecast it has ever produced.
“Power system analysts used upgraded computer modeling to produce annual, monthly, and hourly forecasts of load between 2025-2046 for the Northwest as well as for 13 individual utilities’ balancing authorities in the region,” the blog says. “They also included data from 27 weather stations in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana, which allowed staff to forecast future changes related to weather and climate conditions and how that could affect electricity demand.”
The Council says that data center and chip fabrication developments will mostly occur in Eastern Oregon, Eastern Washington, the Portland metro area, and the Boise metro area. Yet, technology sector load growth could be constrained due to infrastructure needs, construction timelines, permitting, supporting power infrastructure and supply and other factors. So, Council staff has developed three tech forecasts – low, medium, and high – to help account for this uncertainty.
In addition, the Northwest transmission grid, as well as others across the U.S., are encountering constraints, supply chain delays and issues, and interconnection queue backlogs, the blog says. The Council is planning a scenario to explore uncertainty in the cost and availability of new resources and transmission to specifically address this uncertainty.
“Since 1980, the Council’s power plans have helped keep costs affordable for residents, businesses, and industries,” said Idaho Council Member Jeff Allen. “Our upcoming regional power plan will look to build on this legacy and create a blueprint for the cost-effective expansion of our power grid. This will provide certainty to businesses and industries looking to locate or expand in the Northwest, as well as grow our economy and well-paying jobs for the next generation.”
The Council was established by Congress through the 1980 Northwest Power Act. Its responsibilities include developing a 20-year Northwest power plan through a public process that includes a 20-year resource strategy.
The plan will also incorporate a new Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program and must account for changes to the hydroelectric system required by operations that benefit salmon and steelhead in the Columbia and Snake rivers, such as spill, flow and requirements for cooling low summer flows. Development of a new Fish and Wildlife Program is now in process and a final Program will be completed in early 2026.
For background, see:
— CBB, January 19, 2025, Northwest Power/Conservation Council Seeks Recommendations For Amendments To Columbia Basin Fish/Wildlife Program, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/northwest-power-conservation-council-seeks-recommendations-for-amendments-to-columbia-basin-fish-wildlife-program/
— CBB, February 18, 2022, NW Power/Conservation Council Adopts Regional Power Plan; Approves Staff Moving Forward On Dam Breaching Analysis, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/nw-power-conservation-council-adopts-regional-power-plan-approves-staff-moving-forward-on-dam-breaching-analysis/
— CBB, December 16, 2021, “Should The Northwest’s New 20-Year Power Plan Include Analysis Of Lower Snake Dams Removal? Some Say Yes, Some No,” https://www.cbbulletin.com/should-the-northwests-new-20-year-power-plan-include-analysis-of-lower-snake-dam-removal-some-say-yes-some-no/.


