Columbia River Sockeye Return This Year Forecasted To Drop More Than 50 Percent From 2024 Run, Wild Winter Steelhead To Drop 31 Percent

Forecasted returns of salmon and steelhead to the Columbia River this year are showing small changes in run size from the returns of 2024, with the exceptions of sockeye salmon with a run size predicted to drop by more than 50 percent of 2024’s record run and wild winter steelhead forecasted to drop 31 percent, according to an annual staff report by Oregon, Washington and Tribal fish and wildlife agencies.

The U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee, which forecasts the Columbia River mainstem run of salmon and steelhead each year, is forecasting 5 percent more spring Chinook salmon, about 10 percent fewer summer Chinook, about 31.5 percent fewer wild winter steelhead and about 44 percent fewer sockeye salmon returning this year to the Columbia River mainstem and its tributaries upstream of Bonneville Dam.

Most wild spring Chinook are listed under the federal Endangered Species Act. Spring Chinook enter freshwater from February through June and spawn in the Columbia’s tributaries from August through October, the annual staff report says.

“Returning (spring Chinook) adults are comprised of lower river (originating from tributaries downstream of Bonneville Dam) and upriver (originating from tributaries upstream of Bonneville Dam) stocks,” the report says. About 116,332 upriver-origin spring Chinook returned to the Columbia in 2024. That was less than the 2024preseason forecast. TAC has forecasted a run in 2025 of 122,500 upriver spring Chinook.

However, fewer upper Columbia River summer Chinook are expected this year than entered the river last year. Summer Chinook are not listed under the ESA and are considered a healthy run of fish. They head to spawning areas in the mainstem Columbia and hatcheries upstream of Priest Rapids Dam, the staff report says. In 2024, about 42,500 upriver summer Chinook returned to the river, and this year TAC is forecasting a return of 38,000 fish.

Winter steelhead enter the Columbia River from November through April and spawn from March through June. All Columbia River wild winter steelhead are ESA-listed, except those within the Southwest Washington Distinct Population Segment, the report says. Winter runs of steelhead span the year’s end and into the next year, with the 2023/24 wild winter steelhead return (last year’s) to the Columbia River mouth of about 25,400 fish. The 2024/2025 forecast (this year) is 17,400 wild winter steelhead.

Summer steelhead are made up of populations originating from both lower and upper Columbia River tributaries. They enter the river from April through October, with most of the run entering from late June to mid-September. The lower-river component of the run tends to be earlier-timed than the upriver stocks, with abundance peaking in May and June. The total return of 2024 summer steelhead to Bonneville Dam was about 179,000 fish, the report says. That return was higher than the preseason forecast. The 2025 forecast was not available when the staff report was released.

Sockeye salmon migrate through the lower Columbia River in June and July, with normal peak passage at Bonneville Dam around July 1. The Snake River component is ESA-listed as endangered. The 2024 return of sockeye was far higher than the 2024 preseason forecast and the largest since 1938 when counts began, with about 761,700 sockeye. The 2025 forecast is 350,200 sockeye.

The joint staff report also includes American shad, a species introduced to the Columbia River in the late 19th century. Shad run timing is from mid-May through early August, with a June peak at Bonneville Dam. Some 3.2 million shad entered the Columbia in 2024. TAC does not forecast shad runs.

ODFW forecasts the run of spring Chinook into the Willamette River. Wild Willamette River spring Chinook are listed as threatened under the federal ESA. The state agency estimated that 37,737 Willamette River Chinook entered the Columbia River in 2024, down 2 percent from the 2023 return of 38,373 fish and 77 percent of the 2024 preseason forecast of 48,800.

For 2025, ODFW staff forecasts a return of 52,980 Willamette River spring Chinook (adult and jack) to the Columbia River mouth. That’s an increase over the previous 5-year average run size (2020–2024) and 10-year run size (2015–2024) of 45,272 and 48,610 fish, respectively, the report says. The 2025 forecast is a 27 percent increase from the 2024 actual return of 38,898 adult- and jack-aged fish.

The report also offers a detailed account of 2024 harvest by commercial, recreational and tribal fishers for spring and summer Chinook, sockeye salmon, steelhead and American Shad.

2024 Non-Treaty Commercial Fisheries

Spring mainstem commercial fishing — one 12-hour period in May with a harvest of 42 adult and nine jack hatchery-origin Chinook.
Youngs Bay Select Area winter, spring, and summer — 79 fishing periods with a harvest of 11,436 Chinook, 56 percent higher than the 2014–2023 average of 7,354 fish.
Blind/Knappa Slough Select Area winter, spring, and summer – 68 fishing periods with a harvest of 4,385 Chinook, 88 percent greater than the 10-year average of 2,336 fish.
Tongue Point/South Channel Select Area winter, spring, and summer — 68 fishing periods with a harvest of 1,205 spring Chinook, slightly below the 2014–2023 average of 1,274 fish.
Deep River Select Area winter and spring — 53 fishing periods with a harvest of 31 Chinook, 39 percent of the recent-year (2011-17, 2021-23) average of 80 fish, ranging from 21 fish in 2017 to 204 fish in 2015.

2024 Columbia River Recreational Fisheries

Spring-season lower Columbia mainstem recreational fishery was open under permanent regulations from Buoy 10 to Bonneville Dam during January and February and under temporary regulations from March 1 – April 11. The fishery was then reopened May 17–19, May 24–27, and June 1–15 in the area from Tongue Point to Bonneville Dam. Harvest in the fishery downstream of Bonneville Dam was 6,805 spring Chinook (5,705 kept and 1,100 released), 668 spring Chinook jacks (589 kept and 79 released) and 3,416 steelhead (2,762 kept and 634 released) from 73,976 angler trips. Fishery-related mortalities of upriver spring Chinook (kept catch plus release mortality) in the lower Columbia spring recreational fishery was 4,315 adult Chinook, or 80 percent of the catch balance guideline allowed in the U.S. v. Oregon Management Agreement; and the final impact rate to ESA-listed upriver spring Chinook was 0.44 percent compared to the allocated rate of 0.81 percent, the report says.
Spring- fishery from Bonneville Dam upstream to the Oregon/Washington border was open under temporary regulations from April 1–29 and June 8–15. Harvest of Chinook was 1,463 kept (219 released) from 5,046 angler trips. ESA impacts were 0.145 percent, or 129 percent of the 0.112 percent post-season impact allocation for this fishery.
The lower Columbia River summer Chinook season was open June 16-19 from the Astoria-Megler Bridge to Bonneville Dam. Retention of sockeye was open from June 16 – 27, and retention of hatchery steelhead was open June 16 – July 31. Harvest was 1,468 adult summer Chinook (798 kept and 670 released), 208 summer Chinook jacks (180 kept and 28 released), 6,817 summer steelhead (3,957 kept and 2,860 released), and 4,278 sockeye (4,143 kept and 135 released) from 34,996 angler trips.
From Bonneville upstream to Priest Rapids Dam the summer season recreational Chinook fisheries were open June 16 – July 2. Sockeye retention was allowed in this area from June 16 – Aug. 15. Harvest was 114 summer Chinook kept and 52 released, 0 steelhead kept and 133 released, and 7,857 sockeye kept and 137 released from about 14,800 angler trips.
The summer fishery upstream of Priest Rapids was open July 1 – Oct. 15 for hatchery Chinook; harvest (including tributaries) was 3,320 Chinook kept with 574 released from about 42,700 angler trips; additionally, 89,905 sockeye were kept (38 released) and 74 steelhead released.

2024 Columbia River Tributary and Off-Channel Recreational Fisheries

The lower Willamette River (downstream of Willamette Falls) opened for retention of hatchery spring Chinook under permanent regulations effective January 1. Harvest was 5,277 jack and adult spring Chinook (kept and release mortalities). Willamette River anglers harvested 13.6 percent of the total return, which is lower than the recent 5-year average of 15.1 percent.
The fishery upstream of Willamette Falls for hatchery spring Chinook opened under permanent regulations on Jan. 1. Harvest of spring Chinook was 1,935 fish.
The estimated harvest of spring Chinook in the Sandy River was 443 fish.
The Cowlitz, Kalama, and Lewis rivers opened on January 1. An estimated 3,035 hatchery spring Chinook were harvested in Washington lower Columbia River tributaries in 2024 including 1,956 fish from the Cowlitz, 671 from the Kalama, and 408 from the Lewis. The combined hatchery adult spring Chinook harvest rate in these Washington tributaries was 21.4 percent, compared to the recent 10-year average of 20.9 percent.
The 2024 recreational harvest estimate for spring Chinook in all Select Area sites was 2,230 fish, which was over 1.7 times the recent 10-year (2014–2023) average of 1,317 fish.
In the lower Snake River (Washington waters) harvest of Chinook were 784 clipped kept plus 77 unclipped fish released. ESA impacts were 0.140 percent of the 0.168 percent of the ESA-impact allocation for this fishery.

2024 Non-Treaty Tribal Fisheries

The Wanapum tribe harvested 13 spring Chinook of an allocated 17. That was 0.070 percent of the ESA impact to upper Columbia River spring Chinook compared to the 0.168 percent allocated.
The summer-season harvest for the Wanapum tribe was 25 summer Chinook and 98 sockeye.
The 2023 Colville tribal harvest was 1,338 summer Chinook and 16,457 sockeye.

2024 Treaty Indian Fisheries

The winter/spring management period is from Jan. 1 through June 15. The summer management period is from June 16 through July 31.
Harvest in the spring management period was 1,172 spring Chinook in the Zone 6 Ceremonial and Subsistence permit gillnet fishery, 4,590 spring Chinook in the Zone 6 platform and hook-and-line fisheries, and 396 Chinook in the permit hook-and-line fisheries downstream of Bonneville Dam. Harvest of upriver spring Chinook was 6,765 fish out of 8,609 allowed
During the summer management period, the Zone 6 platform and hook-and-line fishery was open from June 16–July 31. Summer Chinook harvest was 7,053 fish. In addition, harvest included 37,162 sockeye in Zone 6 platform/hook-and-line and commercial gillnet fisheries as well as fisheries downstream of Bonneville.
Steelhead harvest during winter and spring fisheries was zero winter steelhead in Zone 6 winter season platform/hook-and-line fisheries from Nov. 1 – March 31.
Harvest in the spring fisheries in the Bonneville Pool was 628 upriver Skamania stock summer steelhead from April 1–June 15 with 89 harvested in The Dalles and John Day pools.
The summer season steelhead harvest was 1,899 fish.
Total tributary harvest in tributaries outside of the Snake Basin was 1,143 Chinook.

The “2025 Joint Staff Report: Stock Status and Fisheries for Spring Chinook, summer Chinook, Sockeye, Steelhead, and Other Species,” was published January 31 by the Joint Columbia River Management Staff, which includes the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission, Nez Perce Tribe, Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon, and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakima Nation (https://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/reports/25_reports/2025_OR_WA_Spring_Joint_Staff_Report.pdf

For background, see:

— CBB, February 9, 2024, HARVEST MANAGERS PREDICT 2024 UPRIVER SPRING CHINOOK RETURN TO COLUMBIA RIVER 15 PERCENT SMALLER THAN 2023; EXPECT DROP IN WILD FISH TO SNAKE RIVER, HTTPS://COLUMBIABASINBULLETIN.ORG/HARVEST-MANAGERS-PREDICT-2024-UPRIVER-SPRING-CHINOOK-RETURN-TO-COLUMBIA-RIVER-15-PERCENT-SMALLER-THAN-2023-EXPECT-DROP-IN-WILD-FISH-TO-SNAKE-RIVER/

— CBB, February 2, 2023, FISHERY MANAGERS EXPECTING OVER 300,000 SPRING CHINOOK TO ENTER COLUMBIA RIVER THIS YEAR, 90 PERCENT HATCHERY FISH, HTTPS://CBBULLETIN.COM/FISHERY-MANAGERS-EXPECTING-OVER-300000-SPRING-CHINOOK-TO-ENTER-COLUMBIA-RIVER-THIS-YEAR-90-PERCENT-HATCHERY-FISH/