Early Columbia River 2024 Salmon Forecasts Show Spring Chinook Lower Than Last Year, Sockeye May See Large Increase
The early run size forecast for spring Chinook salmon next year into the Columbia River basin is slightly lower than the 2023 actual return of the spring fish and much lower than last year’s early run size forecast.
If there is a bright spot in the 2024 forecast, it is sockeye salmon which is forecasted to arrive in the river 19 percent higher than last year’s actual return. That includes 3,800 sockeye into the Snake River, nearly twice the actual return of the endangered fish in 2023.
“The forecast is definitely down from the last couple of years (which likely benefitted from improved in-river and ocean conditions), but still higher than what we had forecasted and the actual returns from 2019 to 2021,” wrote Tucker Jones, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Columbia River Program Manager.
Both Oregon and Washington released 2024 spring and summer Chinook, as well as sockeye, early season forecasts last week. Coho, steelhead and fall Chinook forecasts will be available in mid- to late-February.
Some 187,400 spring Chinook are forecasted to enter the Columbia River in 2024, with nearly two-thirds of those – 121,000 – expected to head upstream of Bonneville Dam. Upriver spring Chinook forecasts are developed by the U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee for use in management of U.S. v. Oregon fisheries. Wild or natural origin components are included in the stock total.
Of the 121,000 upriver spring Chinook, 19,400 will head into the upper Columbia River, with 2,700 of the fish considered natural origin. Upper Columbia River wild spring Chinook are listed by NOAA Fisheries as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act. The majority of returning spring Chinook adults – 63,500 – will head into the Snake River as spring/summer fish. Some 9,200 of those are natural origin fish.
The remaining 66,400 spring Chinook forecasted in 2024 are lower river fish that spawn in tributaries downstream of Bonneville Dam.
“It probably goes without saying there is uncertainty in these forecasts,” said Ryan Lothrop, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Columbia River Fishery Manager. “As far as fishery constraints go, staff has not yet had the time to review all the escapement goals/objectives but I suspect we will have similar constraints as last year; we do know that the upriver spring Chinook run will be constrained by the Snake River wild run (as this occurred last year as well).”
Spring Chinook returns forecasted for next year are generally lower than the 2023 actual returns and far lower than last year’s preseason run forecasts.
— For upper Columbia River spring Chinook, the actual return in 2023 was 24,917 fish, about 25 percent higher than the 2024 forecast of 19,400, and the 2023 preseason forecast was 41,400 fish. The natural origin segment of the upper Columbia run includes an actual 2023 return of 2,836 fish, slightly more than the 2024 forecast of 2,700 fish. The 2023 preseason forecast was 5,800 fish, far higher than actuals.
— For Snake River spring/summer Chinook, the actual return in 2023 was 82,433, some 23 percent higher than the 2024 forecast of 63,500 fish, and the preseason forecast in 2023 was 85,900. The Snake River wild spring Chinook – Lothrop believes this could be the constraining stock in 2024 when setting harvest times and limits – actual return was 10,826 fish and the 2023 preseason forecast was 13,200 fish.
— In the lower Columbia River, the 2023 actual return was 75,407 fish, about 12 percent higher than the 2024 forecast of 66,400 fish. The 2023 preseason forecast was 117,000 fish. One component of lower river spring Chinook is the anticipated 2024 run of 48,700 fish into the Willamette River, one of the few local river forecasts higher than the actual run in 2023. The actual was 38,373 fish, far lower than the 2023 preseason forecast of 71,000 fish.
— Overall, including both upriver and lower river runs, the 2023 actual return was 216,586 fish, about 14 percent higher than the 2024 preseason forecast of 187,400 fish. The 2023 preseason forecast was 315,600 fish.
“The one brighter spot is we have an increased forecast for sockeye,” Lothrop said. The 2024 run size forecast for sockeye salmon is 401,700 fish to the Columbia River, 18 percent higher than the actual 2023 return of sockeye of 329,040 fish. The 2023 preseason forecast was 234,500 fish.
Most of the sockeye head upstream to upper Columbia River tributaries, such as the Wenatchee, Okanogan and Yakima rivers, as well as the Deschutes River in the mid-Columbia River.
— Wenatchee River – 2024 forecast is 97,000; 2023 actual return was 146,875; 2023 preseason forecast was 44,300.
— Okanogan River – 2024 forecast is 288,700 fish; 2023 actual return was 179,655 fish; 2023 preseason forecast was 187,400 fish.
— Yakima River – 2024 forecast is 12,100 fish; 2023 actual return was 443 fish; the 2023 preseason forecast was 100.
— Deschutes River – 2024 forecast is 100 fish; the 2023 actual return was 68 fish; the 2023 preseason forecast was 100 fish.
A small portion of the sockeye run turns into the Snake River where wild sockeye salmon are listed as endangered under the ESA. Some 3,800 fish are forecasted to return to the Snake in 2024, which is 48 percent higher than the 2023 actual return of 1,999 fish. The 2023 forecast was 2,600 fish.
In some past years, returns of spring Chinook salmon to lower river Washington hatcheries on the Lewis, Kalama and Cowlitz rivers have constrained harvest as the hatcheries need to ensure that they meet their broodstock goals. Even though the 2024 preseason forecasts for these rivers are far lower than in 2023, Josua Holowatz, District 10 Fisheries Biologist (Lewis and Cowlitz basins) for WDFW, said limits on spring Chinook harvest in the lower river are unlikely in 2024.
“The recent 2024 spring Chinook forecast anticipates that there will be sufficient adult returns to meet broodstock collection goals at all three tributaries, and these should not constrain mainstem Columbia River fisheries,” Holowatz said.
— The 2024 preseason forecast for the Kalama River is 1,840 into the tributary (1,900 to the mouth of the Columbia), while the 2023 actual return was 2,335 fish to the tributary (2,525 fish to Columbia mouth) and the 2023 preseason forecast was 2,330 fish to the tributary (2,400 fish to the Columbia mouth).
— The 2024 preseason forecast for the Lewis River is 3,270 fish into the tributary (3,400 to the mouth of the Columbia), while the 2023 actual return was 3,161 fish to the tributary (3,191 fish to Columbia mouth) and the 2023 preseason forecast was 4,570 fish to the tributary (4,700 fish to the Columbia mouth).
“I cannot speak to what these fisheries will look like yet, but once collections start, we monitor hatchery brood collections every week and our in-season tributary fisheries are managed to the hatchery need,” Holowatz said.
“It is important to remember, that hatchery brood collections occur on a curve-shaped collection model, in which a percentage of each week’s collections are used for brood, and NOT the first number of fish that come into the facility,” Holowatz added. “This is done to preserve the run timing and other traits of these programs. In the Cowlitz and Lewis, all-natural origin spring Chinook AND hatchery origin above brood hatchery needs are transported to the upper basins for reintroduction efforts. One thing to remember, peak collection for our tributaries usually occur after the typical mainstem fisheries have closed.”
Ten-year averages (2014-2023) for the total spring Chinook run measured at the Columbia River mouth is 231,205 fish, 19 percent higher than 2024 expectations of 187,400 fish. That breaks down to a 10-year average of 152,287 upriver spring Chinook (2024 forecast is 121,000, 21 percent lower than the 10-year average) and 78,918 lower river spring Chinook (2024 forecast is 66,400, 16 percent lower than the 10-year average).
The 2024 sockeye run of 401,700 fish is 16 percent higher than the 10-year average of 337,391 fish. The Snake River sockeye 10-year average is just 1,231 fish, 68 percent lower than the 2024 forecast of 3,800 fish.
The 2024 summer Chinook run forecast of 53,000 fish is nearly identical to the 2023 actual return of 54,722 fish. The 2023 preseason forecast for summer Chinook was 85,400 fish.
The 2024 early salmon forecasts are at: https://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/docs/2024/2024_Spring-Summer%20Forecasts.pdf.
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For background, see:
— CBB, July 14, 2022, BIGGEST COLUMBIA RIVER SOCKEYE RETURN SINCE 1938, DECENT PASSAGE AT LOWER GRANITE; WITH UPDATED FORECAST, CHINOOK FISHING EXTENDED, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/biggest-columbia-river-sockeye-return-since-1938-decent-passage-at-lower-granite-with-updated-forecast-chinook-fishing-extended/
— CBB, February 10, 2022, PRESEASON 2022 RUN-SIZE FORECASTS SHOW A BOOST FOR SUMMER STEELHEAD OVER LAST YEAR, GOOD COHO NUMBERS AGAIN, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/preseason-2022-run-size-forecasts-show-a-boost-for-summer-steelhead-over-last-year-good-coho-numbers-again/
— CBB, February 4, 2022, “Early 2022 Run Size Forecasts For Columbia River Salmon; Nice Spring Chinook Boost, Little Change For Sockeye, Summer Chinook,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/early-2022-run-size-forecasts-for-columbia-river-salmon-nice-spring-chinook-boost-little-change-for-sockeye-summer-chinook/.
— CBB, Feb. 3, 2022, EARLY 2022 RUN SIZE FORECASTS FOR COLUMBIA RIVER SALMON; NICE SPRING CHINOOK BOOST, LITTLE CHANGE FOR SOCKEYE, SUMMER CHINOOK, https://columbiabasinbulletin.org/early-2022-run-size-forecasts-for-columbia-river-salmon-nice-spring-chinook-boost-little-change-for-sockeye-summer-chinook/
— CBB, January 6, 2022, “Steelhead Angling Closures Extended Into 2022 To Protect Fish That Passed Bonneville Dam In October As Part Of Lowest Run On Record,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/steelhead-angling-closures-extended-into-2022-to-protect-fish-that-passed-bonneville-dam-in-october-as-part-of-lowest-run-on-record/.
— CBB, October 21, 2021, “2021 Wrap Up: Low Fall Chinook, Sockeye, Spring Chinook, Steelhead Returns To Columbia River, Record-Breaking Coho Run,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/2021-wrap-up-low-fall-chinook-sockeye-spring-chinook-steelhead-returns-to-columbia-river-record-breaking-coho-run/.
— CBB, September 23, 2021, “Harvest Managers Get Upgraded Run Forecasts, Passage Numbers, Catch And Effort Stats; B-Index Steelhead Prospects Improve, Coho Reduced,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/harvest-managers-get-upgraded-run-forecasts-passage-numbers-catch-and-effort-stats-b-index-steelhead-prospects-improve-coho-reduced/.
— CBB, September 17, 2021, “Though Poor Steelhead Returns Continue, Good Fall Chinook, Coho Runs Have Harvest Managers Approving More Recreational, Commercial Fishing,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/though-poor-steelhead-returns-continue-good-fall-chinook-coho-runs-have-harvest-managers-approving-more-recreational-commercial-fishing/.
— CBB, August 27, 2021, “Columbia River Steelhead Update: Lowest Return Since 1938 Prompts Oregon To Restrict Fishing In Key Tributaries, ‘Unchartered Territory,’” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-river-steelhead-update-lowest-return-since-1938-prompts-oregon-to-restrict-fishing-in-key-tributaries-uncharted-territory/
— CBB, August 19, 2021, “More Bad News For Columbia River Basin Steelhead; A-Run Forecast Plummets 60 Percent, Worst On Record,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/more-bad-news-for-columbia-river-basin-steelhead-a-run-forecast-plummets-60-percent-worst-on-record/
— CBB, August 13, 2021, “Steelhead Passage Through Warm Water Perilously Low, 20 Percent Of Average At Bonneville Dam; Groups Urge Action To Aid Fish,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/steelhead-passage-through-warm-river-perilously-low-20-percent-of-average-at-bonneville-dam-groups-urge-action-to-aid-fish/.
— CBB, August 12, 2021, “Warm Water Hitting Columbia/Snake River Sockeye With Increased Disease, Slower Migration, Higher Mortality; 626 Fish To Lower Granite,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/warm-water-hitting-columbia-snake-river-sockeye-with-increased-disease-slower-migration-higher-mortality-626-fish-to-lower-granite-dam/
— CBB, July 8, 2021, “Harvest Managers’ Mid-Season Forecasts Downgrade Summer Chinook, Sockeye Returns; Steelhead Counts Running At Low Numbers,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/harvest-managers-mid-season-forecasts-downgrade-summer-chinook-sockeye-returns-steelhead-counts-running-at-low-numbers/.
— CBB, June 11, 2021, “Columbia River Salmon Fishing Transitioning From Spring To Summer Chinook; Idaho Sees Improved Wild Steelhead Numbers In Some Waters,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/columbia-river-salmon-fishing-transitioning-from-spring-to-summer-chinook-idaho-sees-improved-wild-steelhead-numbers-in-some-waters/.
— CBB, April 29, 2021, “Oregon, Washington Announce Columbia River Fishing Seasons, Regulations For Summer, Fall Chinook, Steelhead; Reduced Bag Limits,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/oregon-washington-announce-columbia-river-fishing-seasons-regulations-for-summer-chinook-fall-chinook-steelhead-reduced-bag-limits/.
— CBB, January 23, 2020, “Preseason Columbia River Fish Return Forecast: 81,700 Spring Chinook (43 Percent Of Average), 246,300 Sockeye,” https://www.columbiabasinbulletin.org/preseason-columbia-river-fish-return-forecast-81700-spring-chinook-43-percent-of-average-246300-sockeye/
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